Dallas Mavericks at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Tim Hardaway Jr.Points31
- Luka DoncicAssists10
- Dereck Lively IIRebounds9
Wizards- Kyle KuzmaPoints22
- Deni AvdijaAssists4
- Daniel GaffordRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–117
- Q417.1Anthony Gill bad pass (Jaden Hardy steals)130–117
- Q419.0Anthony Gill defensive rebound130–117
- Q423.0Richaun Holmes misses 4-foot hook shot130–117
- Q446.1Johnny Davis makes layup130–117
- Q454.1Patrick Baldwin defensive rebound130–115
- Q456.2Jaden Hardy misses free throw 1 of 1130–115
- Q456.2Patrick Baldwin shooting foul130–115
- Q456.2Jaden Hardy makes driving layup130–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:51Derrick Jones Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)DAL 3 – 2 WSH · DAL 53% → 59% +6DAL 53% → 59%+6 pts
- Q19:48Deni Avdija makes 25-foot three pointer (Kyle Kuzma assists)DAL 7 – 9 WSH · WSH 41% → 47% +6WSH 41% → 47%+6 pts
- Q19:38Luka Doncic makes 27-foot three point jumper (Grant Williams assists)DAL 10 – 9 WSH · DAL 53% → 59% +6DAL 53% → 59%+6 pts
- Q18:15Derrick Jones Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)DAL 18 – 11 WSH · DAL 65% → 71% +6DAL 65% → 71%+6 pts
- Q17:40Luka Doncic makes 28-foot step back jumpshotDAL 21 – 11 WSH · DAL 71% → 76% +5DAL 71% → 76%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -2.5
- DAL 60%
- Fair odds
- DAL -134
- WSH +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 119.3 – 117.1 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +46 | −51 | DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DAL +69 Elo | DAL 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 57.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30122.8 | Points scored | 115.38th of 30 |
| 25th of 30118.8 | Points allowed | 122.528th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.0 | Margin | −7.228th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.6 | Offense rating | 108.524th of 30 |
| 24th of 30114.7 | Defense rating | 115.326th of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.7 | Pace | 106.31st of 30 |
| 3rd of 304–2 | Road vs home | 1–222nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−51 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.