Dallas Mavericks at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints30
- Luka DoncicAssists4
- Dante ExumRebounds8
Clippers- Paul GeorgePoints25
- Russell WestbrookAssists7
- Ivica ZubacRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game88–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter88–107
- Q49.1Kobe Brown defensive rebound88–107
- Q412.1Olivier-Maxence Prosper misses 23-foot three point jumper88–107
- Q422.1Jaden Hardy defensive rebound88–107
- Q425.0Moussa Diabate misses 14-foot two point shot88–107
- Q447.1Kobe Brown defensive rebound88–107
- Q451.0Seth Curry misses 25-foot three point shot88–107
- Q458.1Bones Hyland out of bounds bad pass turnover88–107
- Q41:01Jaden Hardy lost ball turnover (Moussa Diabate steals)88–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:40Paul George makes 23-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)DAL 3 – 5 LAC · LAC 41% → 47% +6LAC 41% → 47%+6 pts
- Q16:03Luka Doncic makes 26-foot step back jumpshotDAL 10 – 13 LAC · DAL 43% → 50% +7DAL 43% → 50%+7 pts
- Q12:02Norman Powell makes 23-foot step back jumpshot (Russell Westbrook assists)DAL 14 – 26 LAC · LAC 65% → 71% +6LAC 65% → 71%+6 pts
- Q11:12Kyrie Irving makes 28-foot three point jumper (Josh Green assists)DAL 17 – 26 LAC · DAL 29% → 35% +6DAL 29% → 35%+6 pts
- Q22:21James Harden makes 25-foot three point jumper (Paul George assists)DAL 38 – 51 LAC · LAC 72% → 78% +7LAC 72% → 78%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -1.5
- DAL 55%
- Fair odds
- DAL -132
- LAC +132 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 116.6 – 114.5 LAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | LAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +56 | +41 | DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +37 Elo | DAL 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 56.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30121.5 | Points scored | 112.618th of 30 |
| 24th of 30119.1 | Points allowed | 109.68th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+2.5 | Margin | +3.112th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30118.1 | Offense rating | 110.717th of 30 |
| 24th of 30115.7 | Defense rating | 107.76th of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.0 | Pace | 101.017th of 30 |
| 12th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 4th of 306–3 | Road vs home | 4–210th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+56 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 1–0 LAC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.