Dallas Mavericks at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Kyrie IrvingPoints39
- Luka DoncicAssists9
- Dereck Lively IIRebounds10
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints40
- Damian LillardAssists12
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–132
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–132
- Q42.1shot clock turnover125–132
- Q423.1Damian Lillard defensive rebound125–132
- Q427.1Kyrie Irving misses 25-foot three point jumper125–132
- Q429.0Seth Curry enters the game for Dereck Lively II125–132
- Q429.0Mavericks Full timeout125–132
- Q429.1Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 14-foot pullup jump shot125–132
- Q442.1Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound125–130
- Q447.1Grant Williams misses 26-foot three point jumper125–130
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:30Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 31-foot three pointerDAL 109 – 104 MIL · MIL 10% → 26% +15MIL 10% → 26%+15 pts
- Q46:10Damian Lillard makes 12-foot driving floating jump shotDAL 111 – 110 MIL · MIL 18% → 43% +25MIL 18% → 43%+25 pts
- Q44:21Kyrie Irving makes driving layupDAL 115 – 117 MIL · DAL 25% → 37% +12DAL 25% → 37%+12 pts
- Q44:11Damian Lillard makes 27-foot three pointerDAL 115 – 120 MIL · MIL 63% → 80% +18MIL 63% → 80%+18 pts
- Q41:05Pat Connaughton makes 22-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)DAL 125 – 130 MIL · MIL 75% → 96% +21MIL 75% → 96%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -1
- DAL 53%
- Fair odds
- DAL -115
- MIL +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 118.7 – 117.7 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MIL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +69 | +52 | DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +23 Elo | DAL 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 53.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30123.4 | Points scored | 118.16th of 30 |
| 25th of 30118.7 | Points allowed | 116.223rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.8 | Margin | +1.912th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30119.1 | Offense rating | 115.07th of 30 |
| 25th of 30114.5 | Defense rating | 113.123rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.8 | Pace | 102.59th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 3rd of 305–2 | Road vs home | 5–15th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+69 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+52 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.