Milwaukee Bucks at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Damian LillardPoints27
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists9
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds8
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints37
- LaMelo BallAssists5
- Mark WilliamsRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–99
- Q45.0Bryce McGowens makes free throw 2 of 2130–99
- Q45.0Bryce McGowens makes free throw 1 of 2130–98
- Q45.0Marques Bolden shooting foul130–97
- Q419.1Andre Jackson Jr. makes 25-foot step back jumpshot (Cameron Payne assists)130–97
- Q433.2Marques Bolden defensive rebound127–97
- Q434.2Nick Smith Jr. misses two point shot127–97
- Q434.2Nick Smith Jr. offensive rebound127–97
- Q439.1Nick Smith Jr. misses driving floating jump shot127–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q23:53Brook Lopez makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Malik Beasley assists)MIL 50 – 48 CHA · MIL 52% → 60% +8MIL 52% → 60%+8 pts
- Q22:55Malik Beasley makes 26-foot three point shot (Pat Connaughton assists)MIL 53 – 50 CHA · MIL 54% → 62% +8MIL 54% → 62%+8 pts
- Q39:07Damian Lillard makes 24-foot step back jumpshot (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 66 – 61 CHA · MIL 60% → 69% +9MIL 60% → 69%+9 pts
- Q38:45LaMelo Ball makes 24-foot three point jumper (Mark Williams assists)MIL 66 – 64 CHA · CHA 31% → 40% +9CHA 31% → 40%+9 pts
- Q37:05Malik Beasley makes 22-foot running pullup jump shot (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 73 – 65 CHA · MIL 69% → 77% +8MIL 69% → 77%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -2.5
- MIL 60%
- Fair odds
- MIL -125
- CHA +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 117.6 – 115.9 CHA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1434 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +46 | +13 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +74 Elo | MIL 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 55.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.0 | Points scored | 115.09th of 30 |
| 24th of 30117.7 | Points allowed | 121.927th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −6.926th of 30 |
| 7th of 30114.0 | Offense rating | 111.512th of 30 |
| 25th of 30114.7 | Defense rating | 118.230th of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.6 | Pace | 103.18th of 30 |
| 16th of 302–3 | Road vs home | 1–426th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.