Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Jimmy Butler IIIPoints32
- Josh RichardsonAssists6
- Bam AdebayoRebounds11
Hornets- P.J. WashingtonPoints32
- LaMelo BallAssists11
- Nick RichardsRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–105
- Q47.1Josh Richardson defensive rebound111–105
- Q410.0P.J. Washington misses 22-foot step back jumpshot111–105
- Q413.1Hornets Full timeout111–105
- Q413.1Jimmy Butler makes free throw 2 of 2111–105
- Q413.1Haywood Highsmith enters the game for Duncan Robinson110–105
- Q413.1Jimmy Butler makes free throw 1 of 2110–105
- Q413.1LaMelo Ball personal take foul109–105
- Q414.1Josh Richardson offensive rebound109–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:00P.J. Washington makes 22-foot three point jumper (Bryce McGowens assists)MIA 95 – 90 CHA · CHA 16% → 27% +11CHA 16% → 27%+11 pts
- Q46:17Nick Smith Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (P.J. Washington assists)MIA 97 – 93 CHA · CHA 16% → 29% +13CHA 16% → 29%+13 pts
- Q44:41Duncan Robinson makes 26-foot three point jumperMIA 102 – 95 CHA · MIA 74% → 88% +13MIA 74% → 88%+13 pts
- Q43:49Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler assists)MIA 105 – 98 CHA · MIA 77% → 90% +13MIA 77% → 90%+13 pts
- Q43:34Bryce McGowens makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nick Richards assists)MIA 105 – 101 CHA · CHA 9% → 23% +13CHA 9% → 23%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hornets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -1
- CHA 47%
- Fair odds
- CHA -107
- MIA +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 113.9 – 114.4 CHA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1442 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +16 | +13 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIA +23 Elo | MIA 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 51.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30109.5 | Points scored | 116.16th of 30 |
| 9th of 30110.3 | Points allowed | 123.129th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −7.026th of 30 |
| 21st of 30108.8 | Offense rating | 111.512th of 30 |
| 13th of 30109.6 | Defense rating | 118.329th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30100.5 | Pace | 104.14th of 30 |
| 8th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 1–324th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.