LA Clippers at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints26
- James HardenAssists9
- Daniel TheisRebounds11
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints22
- Jeremy SochanAssists7
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–102
- Q41.0Spurs offensive team rebound109–102
- Q41.0Jeremy Sochan misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot109–102
- Q46.1James Harden makes free throw 2 of 2109–102
- Q46.1James Harden makes free throw 1 of 2108–102
- Q46.1Dominick Barlow enters the game for Zach Collins107–102
- Q46.1Zach Collins personal take foul107–102
- Q411.1Jeremy Sochan makes 2-foot two point shot107–102
- Q421.1Russell Westbrook makes free throw 2 of 2107–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:19Zach Collins makes 26-foot three point jumper (Keldon Johnson assists)LAC 8 – 8 SA · SA 32% → 38% +6SA 32% → 38%+6 pts
- Q310:19Kawhi Leonard makes 27-foot three point jumper (Paul George assists)LAC 59 – 52 SA · LAC 70% → 77% +7LAC 70% → 77%+7 pts
- Q310:00Zach Collins makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jeremy Sochan assists)LAC 59 – 55 SA · SA 22% → 30% +7SA 22% → 30%+7 pts
- Q37:13Keldon Johnson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jeremy Sochan assists)LAC 64 – 62 SA · SA 27% → 36% +9SA 27% → 36%+9 pts
- Q36:55Ivica Zubac makes 4-foot dunk (James Harden assists)LAC 66 – 62 SA · LAC 64% → 70% +6LAC 64% → 70%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -5.5
- LAC 71%
- Fair odds
- LAC -167
- SA +167 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 116.6 – 112.6 SA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1403 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +54 | −42 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +158 Elo | LAC 71.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 61.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 62.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30113.5 | Points scored | 110.324th of 30 |
| 8th of 30109.7 | Points allowed | 124.129th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+3.8 | Margin | −13.930th of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.8 | Offense rating | 104.929th of 30 |
| 7th of 30108.0 | Defense rating | 118.127th of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.7 | Pace | 103.64th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 26th of 301–6 | Road vs home | 1–729th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
−42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAC 2–0 SA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.