LA Clippers at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Paul GeorgePoints28
- James HardenAssists10
- Ivica ZubacRebounds11
Spurs- Keldon JohnsonPoints22
- Keldon JohnsonAssists5
- Charles BasseyRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–99
- Q43.1Sidy Cissoko lost ball turnover (Norman Powell steals)124–99
- Q49.0Charles Bassey defensive rebound124–99
- Q412.0Julian Champagnie blocks Amir Coffey 's 5-foot driving layup124–99
- Q437.1Malaki Branham makes 25-foot three pointer (Charles Bassey assists)124–99
- Q453.2Bones Hyland out of bounds bad pass turnover124–96
- Q41:00Bones Hyland defensive rebound124–96
- Q41:03Tre Jones misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot124–96
- Q41:10Bones Hyland makes 26-foot three point shot (Terance Mann assists)124–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:10Cedi Osman makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)LAC 15 – 16 SA · SA 41% → 48% +7SA 41% → 48%+7 pts
- Q13:37Tre Jones makes 23-foot three point jumper (Charles Bassey assists)LAC 17 – 19 SA · SA 43% → 50% +7SA 43% → 50%+7 pts
- Q11:35Kawhi Leonard makes 27-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)LAC 26 – 21 SA · LAC 59% → 65% +7LAC 59% → 65%+7 pts
- Q28:53Norman Powell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Paul George assists)LAC 42 – 35 SA · LAC 64% → 70% +7LAC 64% → 70%+7 pts
- Q22:02Cedi Osman makes 27-foot three point jumper (Keldon Johnson assists)LAC 60 – 53 SA · SA 21% → 28% +7SA 21% → 28%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -3
- LAC 62%
- Fair odds
- LAC -121
- SA +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 115.5 – 114.1 SA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1416 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +33 | −42 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | LAC crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | LAC +85 Elo | LAC 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 54.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30112.5 | Points scored | 111.220th of 30 |
| 9th of 30110.6 | Points allowed | 124.229th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.9 | Margin | −13.030th of 30 |
| 16th of 30110.8 | Offense rating | 105.428th of 30 |
| 8th of 30108.9 | Defense rating | 117.727th of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.7 | Pace | 103.93rd of 30 |
| 21st of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 29th of 300–6 | Road vs home | 1–627th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
−42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAC 1–0 SA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.