Sacramento Kings at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Domantas SabonisPoints32
- De'Aaron FoxAssists7
- Domantas SabonisRebounds13
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints25
- Luka DoncicAssists7
- Luka DoncicRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–113
- Q40.0Mavericks offensive team rebound129–113
- Q40.1Markieff Morris misses 33-foot three point jumper129–113
- Q44.1shot clock turnover129–113
- Q428.2Markieff Morris makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot129–113
- Q445.1Sasha Vezenkov makes 24-foot step back jumpshot (Davion Mitchell assists)129–111
- Q41:07Dante Exum makes 1-foot driving dunk126–111
- Q41:15Sasha Vezenkov makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot (Kessler Edwards assists)126–109
- Q41:27Richaun Holmes makes two point shot124–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:40De'Aaron Fox makes 26-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)SAC 80 – 77 DAL · SAC 49% → 59% +10SAC 49% → 59%+10 pts
- Q36:38Luka Doncic makes 25-foot step back jumpshotSAC 83 – 82 DAL · DAL 38% → 48% +10DAL 38% → 48%+10 pts
- Q36:29De'Aaron Fox makes 24-foot three pointerSAC 86 – 82 DAL · SAC 52% → 62% +10SAC 52% → 62%+10 pts
- Q34:20Derrick Jones Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dwight Powell assists)SAC 89 – 89 DAL · DAL 40% → 51% +11DAL 40% → 51%+11 pts
- Q34:06Malik Monk makes 25-foot three point jumper (Chris Duarte assists)SAC 92 – 89 DAL · SAC 49% → 60% +11SAC 49% → 60%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -0.5
- DAL 52%
- Fair odds
- DAL -107
- SAC +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 117.7 – 118.2 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +63 | +71 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +12 Elo | DAL 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 51.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30115.9 | Points scored | 123.52nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.5 | Points allowed | 119.725th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.4 | Margin | +3.88th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.9 | Offense rating | 119.01st of 30 |
| 14th of 30110.6 | Defense rating | 115.325th of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.7 | Pace | 104.03rd of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 12th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 4–17th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+63 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+71 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.