New Orleans Pelicans at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints32
- Zion WilliamsonAssists5
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds8
Clippers- Paul GeorgePoints34
- James HardenAssists10
- Paul GeorgeRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–106
- Q40.0(00:00) [Pelicans] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)116–106
- Q41.1Larry Nance Jr. makes 3-foot dunk (Brandon Ingram assists)116–106
- Q49.1Naji Marshall defensive rebound114–106
- Q49.1Larry Nance Jr. blocks Kawhi Leonard 's 4-foot two point shot114–106
- Q410.1Kawhi Leonard offensive rebound114–106
- Q411.1Norman Powell misses 23-foot three point jumper114–106
- Q424.1Naji Marshall makes free throw 2 of 2114–106
- Q424.1Naji Marshall makes free throw 1 of 2113–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:18Paul George makes 23-foot three point shot (James Harden assists)NO 56 – 60 LAC · LAC 55% → 63% +9LAC 55% → 63%+9 pts
- Q35:09James Harden makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Terance Mann assists)NO 73 – 75 LAC · LAC 48% → 58% +10LAC 48% → 58%+10 pts
- Q49:16Norman Powell makes 28-foot three pointer (P.J. Tucker assists)NO 93 – 89 LAC · LAC 21% → 33% +12LAC 21% → 33%+12 pts
- Q48:52Ivica Zubac makes two point shotNO 93 – 91 LAC · LAC 32% → 41% +9LAC 32% → 41%+9 pts
- Q48:34Herbert Jones makes 29-foot three pointerNO 96 – 91 LAC · NO 59% → 72% +14NO 59% → 72%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -0.5
- LAC 51%
- Fair odds
- LAC -109
- NO +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 112.4 – 113.1 LAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +50 | +50 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +10 Elo | LAC 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 52.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30113.5 | Points scored | 113.216th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.9 | Points allowed | 109.18th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +4.18th of 30 |
| 18th of 30111.0 | Offense rating | 111.316th of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.3 | Defense rating | 107.37th of 30 |
| 8th of 30102.2 | Pace | 100.918th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 18th of 302–3 | Road vs home | 4–17th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.