Minnesota Timberwolves at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints29
- Karl-Anthony TownsAssists9
- Rudy GobertRebounds11
Pelicans- Brandon IngramPoints30
- Herbert JonesAssists8
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–120
- Q41.1Mike Conley defensive rebound121–120
- Q41.1Brandon Ingram misses 20-foot two point shot121–120
- Q45.0Nickeil Alexander-Walker enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns121–120
- Q45.0Jonas Valanciunas enters the game for Jeremiah Robinson-Earl121–120
- Q45.0Matt Ryan enters the game for Naji Marshall121–120
- Q45.0Pelicans Full timeout121–120
- Q45.0Karl-Anthony Towns makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot (Kyle Anderson assists)121–120
- Q410.0Jordan Hawkins enters the game for Jonas Valanciunas119–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:56Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)MIN 111 – 112 NO · MIN 15% → 45% +30MIN 15% → 45%+30 pts
- Q41:27Karl-Anthony Towns makes 27-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 119 – 117 NO · MIN 40% → 74% +34MIN 40% → 74%+34 pts
- Q41:03Brandon Ingram makes 16-foot two point shotMIN 119 – 119 NO · NO 23% → 49% +26NO 23% → 49%+26 pts
- Q410.0Brandon Ingram makes free throw 2 of 2MIN 119 – 120 NO · NO 49% → 81% +31NO 49% → 81%+31 pts
- Q45.0Karl-Anthony Towns makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot (Kyle Anderson assists)MIN 121 – 120 NO · MIN 11% → 90% +79MIN 11% → 90%+79 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -3
- MIN 63%
- Fair odds
- MIN -144
- NO +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 113.6 – 110.8 NO
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | NO on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +55 | +1 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Missing Zion Williamson −10 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +90 Elo | MIN 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 59.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30112.2 | Points scored | 111.419th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.6 | Points allowed | 115.221st of 30 |
| 4th of 30+6.5 | Margin | −3.822nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30110.2 | Offense rating | 108.622nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30103.8 | Defense rating | 112.320th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.8 | Pace | 102.69th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 12th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 4–315th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+55 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+1 Elo- Zion Williamson rest−10 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 1–0 NO in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.