Minnesota Timberwolves at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints25
- Anthony EdwardsAssists4
- Rudy GobertRebounds8
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints31
- Kevin DurantAssists6
- Kevin DurantRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–133
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–133
- Q49.1Chimezie Metu defensive rebound115–133
- Q413.0Troy Brown Jr. misses 13-foot two point shot115–133
- Q420.0Troy Brown Jr. defensive rebound115–133
- Q423.1Chimezie Metu misses 19-foot pullup jump shot115–133
- Q444.2Luka Garza makes two point shot115–133
- Q446.0Luka Garza offensive rebound113–133
- Q447.1Yuta Watanabe blocks Luka Garza 's 5-foot two point shot113–133
- Q447.1Luka Garza offensive rebound113–133
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:05Josh Okogie makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jusuf Nurkic assists)MIN 14 – 17 PHX · PHX 51% → 57% +7PHX 51% → 57%+7 pts
- Q15:29Josh Okogie makes 22-foot three point jumper (Eric Gordon assists)MIN 16 – 20 PHX · PHX 53% → 60% +7PHX 53% → 60%+7 pts
- Q112.0Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kyle Anderson assists)MIN 29 – 33 PHX · MIN 33% → 40% +7MIN 33% → 40%+7 pts
- Q211:09Mike Conley makes 27-foot three pointer (Kyle Anderson assists)MIN 32 – 37 PHX · MIN 31% → 37% +7MIN 31% → 37%+7 pts
- Q210:28Drew Eubanks makes 23-foot three point jumper (Keita Bates-Diop assists)MIN 32 – 42 PHX · PHX 67% → 74% +6PHX 67% → 74%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -1
- PHX 45%
- Fair odds
- PHX -103
- MIN +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 111.0 – 111.2 PHX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1563 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +72 | +33 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +34 Elo | MIN 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 50.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30111.9 | Points scored | 111.818th of 30 |
| 1st of 30102.9 | Points allowed | 112.113th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+9.0 | Margin | −0.316th of 30 |
| 19th of 30109.2 | Offense rating | 109.418th of 30 |
| 1st of 30100.4 | Defense rating | 109.711th of 30 |
| 16th of 30101.5 | Pace | 100.820th of 30 |
| 6th of 303–2 | Road vs home | 1–425th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+72 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.