Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Harrison BarnesPoints16
- Domantas SabonisAssists8
- Domantas SabonisRebounds10
Pelicans- Brandon IngramPoints31
- Jonas ValanciunasAssists7
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game93–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter93–129
- Q49.1Naji Marshall offensive rebound93–129
- Q411.1Cody Zeller misses driving layup93–129
- Q435.1Jalen Slawson makes two point shot (Davion Mitchell assists)93–129
- Q440.1Kessler Edwards defensive rebound91–129
- Q443.1Kira Lewis Jr. misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot91–129
- Q456.2Colby Jones makes 16-foot two point shot (Jalen Slawson assists)91–129
- Q41:01Jalen Slawson defensive rebound89–129
- Q41:06Cody Zeller misses 25-foot three point jumper89–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:16Malik Monk makes 26-foot three point shot (Kevin Huerter assists)SAC 34 – 33 NO · SAC 45% → 52% +7SAC 45% → 52%+7 pts
- Q29:17Harrison Barnes makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kevin Huerter assists)SAC 37 – 35 NO · SAC 47% → 55% +7SAC 47% → 55%+7 pts
- Q27:15Harrison Barnes makes 25-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)SAC 42 – 41 NO · SAC 45% → 52% +8SAC 45% → 52%+8 pts
- Q26:47Kevin Huerter makes 23-foot three point jumper (Malik Monk assists)SAC 45 – 41 NO · SAC 52% → 60% +8SAC 52% → 60%+8 pts
- Q23:55Herbert Jones makes 23-foot three point shot (Naji Marshall assists)SAC 47 – 52 NO · NO 56% → 64% +8NO 56% → 64%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pelicans 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -0.5
- NO 48%
- Fair odds
- NO -101
- SAC +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 114.9 – 115.0 NO
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | SAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +80 | +21 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +12 Elo | SAC 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 50.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30117.0 | Points scored | 112.118th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.4 | Points allowed | 115.621st of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.6 | Margin | −3.523rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30113.5 | Offense rating | 109.422nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30111.0 | Defense rating | 112.920th of 30 |
| 16th of 30101.3 | Pace | 102.48th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 10th of 304–3 | Road vs home | 4–416th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+80 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.