Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints26
- Domantas SabonisAssists6
- Domantas SabonisRebounds9
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints25
- Zion WilliamsonAssists6
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–117
- Q40.1Brandon Ingram makes free throw 2 of 2112–117
- Q40.1Larry Nance Jr. enters the game for Jonas Valanciunas112–115
- Q40.1JaVale McGee enters the game for Domantas Sabonis112–115
- Q40.1(00:00.5) [Kings] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL STANDS)112–115
- Q40.1Brandon Ingram makes free throw 1 of 2112–116
- Q40.1Malik Monk personal foul112–115
- Q41.1De'Aaron Fox makes 12-foot two point shot112–115
- Q416.0Brandon Ingram makes 1-foot dunk (Zion Williamson assists)110–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:36Malik Monk makes 25-foot three point shot (Davion Mitchell assists)SAC 95 – 97 NO · SAC 25% → 38% +13SAC 25% → 38%+13 pts
- Q47:44Jose Alvarado makes 23-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)SAC 97 – 100 NO · NO 52% → 67% +15NO 52% → 67%+15 pts
- Q47:27Harrison Barnes makes 23-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)SAC 100 – 100 NO · SAC 33% → 48% +15SAC 33% → 48%+15 pts
- Q45:16Naji Marshall makes 26-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)SAC 105 – 107 NO · NO 45% → 64% +19NO 45% → 64%+19 pts
- Q41:52Zion Williamson makes driving layup (Naji Marshall assists)SAC 108 – 111 NO · NO 61% → 79% +18NO 61% → 79%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pelicans 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -2
- NO 58%
- Fair odds
- NO -119
- SAC +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 114.0 – 115.4 NO
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +57 | +53 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +55 Elo | NO 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 54.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30115.2 | Points scored | 113.317th of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.5 | Points allowed | 114.017th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.719th of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.8 | Offense rating | 110.719th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.2 | Defense rating | 111.414th of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.3 | Pace | 102.39th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 14th of 304–4 | Road vs home | 5–415th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+57 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SAC 0–1 NO in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.