Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints30
- Luka DoncicAssists8
- Luka DoncicRebounds12
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints26
- LeBron JamesAssists7
- Anthony DavisRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–101
- Q40.0Lakers offensive team rebound104–101
- Q41.2LeBron James misses 23-foot three point jumper104–101
- Q42.1Lakers Full timeout104–101
- Q42.1Dante Exum enters the game for Seth Curry104–101
- Q42.1Derrick Jones Jr. enters the game for Tim Hardaway Jr.104–101
- Q42.1Austin Reaves enters the game for Jaxson Hayes104–101
- Q42.1D'Angelo Russell enters the game for Max Christie104–101
- Q42.1Lakers Full timeout104–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:06LeBron James makes 29-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)DAL 99 – 95 LAL · LAL 7% → 20% +13LAL 7% → 20%+13 pts
- Q42:21Taurean Prince makes 6-foot two point shot (D'Angelo Russell assists)DAL 99 – 97 LAL · LAL 17% → 31% +14LAL 17% → 31%+14 pts
- Q41:51Austin Reaves makes 9-foot driving floating jump shotDAL 99 – 99 LAL · LAL 29% → 49% +20LAL 29% → 49%+20 pts
- Q41:16LeBron James makes tip shotDAL 99 – 101 LAL · LAL 49% → 73% +24LAL 49% → 73%+24 pts
- Q421.1Kyrie Irving makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)DAL 102 – 101 LAL · DAL 11% → 73% +62DAL 11% → 73%+62 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -0.5
- DAL 52%
- Fair odds
- DAL -125
- LAL +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 118.1 – 116.4 LAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | LAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +61 | +8 | DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +17 Elo | DAL 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 55.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30122.8 | Points scored | 113.119th of 30 |
| 24th of 30120.4 | Points allowed | 112.612th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+2.4 | Margin | +0.516th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.7 | Offense rating | 109.524th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.4 | Defense rating | 109.08th of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.5 | Pace | 101.910th of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 5th of 305–3 | Road vs home | 7–14th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+61 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.