Utah Jazz at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Omer YurtsevenPoints18
- Talen Horton-TuckerAssists7
- Lauri MarkkanenRebounds8
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints26
- LeBron JamesAssists9
- Anthony DavisRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–131
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–131
- Q40.0Kris Dunn makes two point shot (Collin Sexton assists)99–131
- Q43.1shot clock turnover97–131
- Q426.1Christian Wood defensive rebound97–131
- Q428.2Kris Dunn misses 6-foot two point shot97–131
- Q436.1Collin Sexton defensive rebound97–131
- Q438.2Austin Reaves misses 18-foot step back jumpshot97–131
- Q457.1Jaxson Hayes defensive rebound97–131
- Q459.1Luka Samanic misses driving layup97–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:27John Collins makes 25-foot three point jumper (Keyonte George assists)UTAH 7 – 8 LAL · UTAH 36% → 43% +6UTAH 36% → 43%+6 pts
- Q17:11LeBron James makes 26-foot three point jumper (Anthony Davis assists)UTAH 7 – 11 LAL · LAL 57% → 64% +6LAL 57% → 64%+6 pts
- Q211:38Collin Sexton makes 25-foot three point jumper (Talen Horton-Tucker assists)UTAH 20 – 32 LAL · UTAH 15% → 20% +5UTAH 15% → 20%+5 pts
- Q28:30Lauri Markkanen makes 25-foot three point jumper (Talen Horton-Tucker assists)UTAH 27 – 38 LAL · UTAH 16% → 21% +5UTAH 16% → 21%+5 pts
- Q24:25D'Angelo Russell makes 28-foot three point shot (Austin Reaves assists)UTAH 35 – 51 LAL · LAL 84% → 88% +4LAL 84% → 88%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lakers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -2
- LAL 59%
- Fair odds
- LAL -124
- UTAH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 115.6 – 117.3 LAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1458 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +26 | −21 | UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +61 Elo | LAL 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 55.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30116.8 | Points scored | 111.920th of 30 |
| 26th of 30122.0 | Points allowed | 113.615th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−5.2 | Margin | −1.722nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 108.323rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30118.0 | Defense rating | 109.910th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.8 | Pace | 101.812th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 26th of 301–5 | Road vs home | 6–14th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
−21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.