Phoenix Suns at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints39
- Kevin DurantAssists10
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds12
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints38
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists11
- Lauri MarkkanenRebounds17
Last plays
- 2OT0.0End of Game140–137
- 2OT0.0End of the 2nd Overtime140–137
- 2OT0.0Jazz offensive team rebound140–137
- 2OT0.0Kevin Durant blocks Lauri Markkanen 's 24-foot three point jumper140–137
- 2OT0.0(00:00) [Suns] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Suns] retain their timeout140–137
- 2OT0.0Suns Full timeout140–137
- 2OT0.2Jazz Full timeout140–137
- 2OT0.2Devin Booker makes free throw 2 of 2140–137
- 2OT0.2Devin Booker makes free throw 1 of 2139–137
- 2OT0.2Keyonte George personal foul138–137
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:22John Collins makes 23-foot three point jumper (Keyonte George assists)PHX 113 – 113 UTAH · UTAH 17% → 50% +32UTAH 17% → 50%+32 pts
- Q420.1Lauri Markkanen makes two point shotPHX 115 – 115 UTAH · UTAH 11% → 50% +39UTAH 11% → 50%+39 pts
- OT0.0Collin Sexton makes two point shotPHX 127 – 127 UTAH · UTAH 0% → 49% +49UTAH 0% → 49%+49 pts
- 2OT58.2John Collins makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jordan Clarkson assists)PHX 135 – 135 UTAH · UTAH 13% → 50% +36UTAH 13% → 50%+36 pts
- 2OT43.0Grayson Allen makes 29-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)PHX 138 – 135 UTAH · PHX 50% → 90% +40PHX 50% → 90%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -1.5
- PHX 56%
- Fair odds
- PHX -112
- UTAH +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 116.6 – 115.7 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +66 | +25 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +45 Elo | PHX 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 52.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30115.2 | Points scored | 115.29th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.7 | Points allowed | 120.526th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.5 | Margin | −5.324th of 30 |
| 9th of 30113.7 | Offense rating | 112.813th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.2 | Defense rating | 118.129th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30100.1 | Pace | 102.011th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 5th of 304–2 | Road vs home | 3–316th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+66 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHX 2–0 UTAH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.