Phoenix Suns at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints38
- Devin BookerAssists15
- Kevin DurantRebounds9
Jazz- Jordan ClarksonPoints37
- Kelly OlynykAssists7
- John CollinsRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game131–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter131–128
- Q43.0Eric Gordon enters the game for Keita Bates-Diop131–128
- Q43.0Yuta Watanabe enters the game for Josh Okogie131–128
- Q43.0Collin Sexton enters the game for Kelly Olynyk131–128
- Q43.0Suns Full timeout131–128
- Q43.2Jordan Clarkson makes 26-foot three pointer (Kelly Olynyk assists)131–128
- Q47.1Jazz Full timeout131–125
- Q47.1Grayson Allen makes free throw 2 of 2131–125
- Q47.1Grayson Allen makes free throw 1 of 2130–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:44Jordan Clarkson makes 28-foot three pointerPHX 119 – 115 UTAH · UTAH 12% → 25% +13UTAH 12% → 25%+13 pts
- Q41:42Jordan Clarkson makes 26-foot three pointerPHX 124 – 123 UTAH · UTAH 13% → 39% +26UTAH 13% → 39%+26 pts
- Q451.0Kevin Durant makes free throw 1 of 2PHX 125 – 123 UTAH · PHX 65% → 78% +13PHX 65% → 78%+13 pts
- Q439.1John Collins makes free throw 2 of 2PHX 126 – 125 UTAH · UTAH 19% → 33% +14UTAH 19% → 33%+14 pts
- Q418.1Kevin Durant makes 27-foot three pointerPHX 129 – 125 UTAH · PHX 74% → >99% +25PHX 74% → >99%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -1
- PHX 54%
- Fair odds
- PHX -100
- UTAH +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 115.0 – 115.0 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +50 | +18 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +25 Elo | PHX 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 50.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30113.7 | Points scored | 114.012th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.4 | Points allowed | 119.526th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.4 | Margin | −5.525th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.0 | Offense rating | 111.315th of 30 |
| 16th of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 116.827th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30100.3 | Pace | 102.311th of 30 |
| 17th of 294–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 29 |
| 6th of 303–2 | Road vs home | 3–214th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHX 1–0 UTAH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.