Denver Nuggets at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Reggie JacksonPoints35
- Reggie JacksonAssists13
- DeAndre JordanRebounds13
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints31
- James HardenAssists4
- Ivica ZubacRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–104
- Q419.0Russell Westbrook makes 1-foot two point shot (Kawhi Leonard assists)113–104
- Q430.0Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes free throw 2 of 2113–102
- Q430.0Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes free throw 1 of 2112–102
- Q430.0Russell Westbrook personal take foul111–102
- Q434.0Michael Porter Jr. defensive rebound111–102
- Q434.0Norman Powell misses 26-foot three point jumper111–102
- Q435.0Kawhi Leonard offensive rebound111–102
- Q438.1Paul George misses 23-foot three point jumper111–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:56DeAndre Jordan makes 2-foot alley oop dunk shot (Reggie Jackson assists)DEN 94 – 91 LAC · DEN 50% → 61% +11DEN 50% → 61%+11 pts
- Q46:31Kawhi Leonard makes 10-foot driving floating jump shotDEN 94 – 93 LAC · LAC 38% → 49% +11LAC 38% → 49%+11 pts
- Q46:12Reggie Jackson makes driving layupDEN 96 – 93 LAC · DEN 51% → 62% +11DEN 51% → 62%+11 pts
- Q45:11Reggie Jackson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Michael Porter Jr. assists)DEN 99 – 94 LAC · DEN 58% → 75% +17DEN 58% → 75%+17 pts
- Q41:58Peyton Watson makes 5-foot two point shot (Justin Holiday assists)DEN 104 – 100 LAC · DEN 67% → 83% +16DEN 67% → 83%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -4.5
- LAC 67%
- Fair odds
- LAC -170
- DEN +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 108.8 – 112.8 LAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | DEN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +32 | +45 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +124 Elo | LAC 67.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 62.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 62.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30113.1 | Points scored | 112.319th of 30 |
| 8th of 30109.2 | Points allowed | 108.17th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.8 | Margin | +4.17th of 30 |
| 10th of 30114.1 | Offense rating | 110.717th of 30 |
| 9th of 30110.2 | Defense rating | 106.75th of 30 |
| 26th of 3099.1 | Pace | 100.719th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 20th of 303–6 | Road vs home | 5–210th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DEN 1–0 LAC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.