San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints22
- Tre JonesAssists6
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds11
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints39
- Nikola JokicAssists9
- Nikola JokicRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–132
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–132
- Q415.0Hunter Tyson defensive rebound120–132
- Q418.1Julian Champagnie misses 25-foot three point jumper120–132
- Q427.1Jay Huff makes 1-foot two point shot (Braxton Key assists)120–132
- Q445.0Julian Champagnie makes 25-foot three pointer120–130
- Q454.0Jalen Pickett traveling117–130
- Q458.0Braxton Key defensive rebound117–130
- Q41:01Devonte' Graham misses running pullup jump shot117–130
- Q41:04Charles Bassey defensive rebound117–130
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:10Victor Wembanyama makes 26-foot three point shot (Jeremy Sochan assists)SA 5 – 3 DEN · SA 20% → 25% +5SA 20% → 25%+5 pts
- Q15:11Devin Vassell makes 26-foot three pointer (Cedi Osman assists)SA 17 – 22 DEN · SA 10% → 15% +5SA 10% → 15%+5 pts
- Q14:50Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 25-foot three point jumper (Justin Holiday assists)SA 17 – 26 DEN · DEN 85% → 90% +5DEN 85% → 90%+5 pts
- Q29:40Victor Wembanyama makes 25-foot three pointer (Devin Vassell assists)SA 40 – 42 DEN · SA 16% → 21% +5SA 16% → 21%+5 pts
- Q310:10Julian Champagnie makes 26-foot three point shot (Tre Jones assists)SA 67 – 74 DEN · SA 9% → 14% +4SA 9% → 14%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -10
- DEN 83%
- Fair odds
- DEN -379
- SA +379 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 108.5 – 118.7 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1395 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −47 | +99 | SA: Weaker than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | SA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +273 Elo | DEN 82.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 78.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 79.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30109.9 | Points scored | 111.921st of 30 |
| 28th of 30122.8 | Points allowed | 108.68th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−12.9 | Margin | +3.311th of 30 |
| 28th of 30104.4 | Offense rating | 113.610th of 30 |
| 26th of 30116.7 | Defense rating | 110.210th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.9 | Pace | 98.526th of 30 |
| 29th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 23rd of 302–5 | Road vs home | 7–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
−47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+99 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.