San Antonio Spurs at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Devin VassellPoints24
- Zach CollinsAssists6
- Keldon JohnsonRebounds12
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints35
- Chris PaulAssists10
- Kevon LooneyRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–118
- Q40.0Spurs offensive team rebound112–118
- Q41.0Keldon Johnson misses 30-foot three point jumper112–118
- Q46.1Stephen Curry makes free throw 2 of 2112–118
- Q46.1Stephen Curry makes free throw 1 of 2112–117
- Q46.1Cedi Osman personal foul112–116
- Q47.0Keldon Johnson makes driving layup112–116
- Q413.1Klay Thompson makes free throw 2 of 2110–116
- Q413.1Klay Thompson makes free throw 1 of 2110–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:44Keldon Johnson makes 27-foot three point jumperSA 60 – 63 GS · SA 22% → 30% +8SA 22% → 30%+8 pts
- Q38:27Andrew Wiggins makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kevon Looney assists)SA 60 – 66 GS · GS 70% → 78% +8GS 70% → 78%+8 pts
- Q36:13Stephen Curry makes 26-foot three pointerSA 68 – 69 GS · GS 54% → 64% +10GS 54% → 64%+10 pts
- Q35:10Dario Saric makes 26-foot three point jumper (Chris Paul assists)SA 68 – 74 GS · GS 70% → 78% +8GS 70% → 78%+8 pts
- Q411:28Jonathan Kuminga makes 28-foot three point jumper (Klay Thompson assists)SA 81 – 89 GS · GS 74% → 86% +12GS 74% → 86%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Warriors 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -6.5
- GS 75%
- Fair odds
- GS -199
- SA +199 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 113.1 – 118.3 GS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1399 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −46 | −7 | SA: Weaker than its recent lineups · GS: Missing Draymond Green −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +187 Elo | GS 74.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 65.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 66.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30109.7 | Points scored | 113.913th of 30 |
| 28th of 30123.1 | Points allowed | 114.119th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−13.4 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 28th of 30104.5 | Offense rating | 111.913th of 30 |
| 26th of 30117.2 | Defense rating | 112.016th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.6 | Pace | 101.116th of 30 |
| 29th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 2–825th of 30 |
| 21st of 302–4 | Road vs home | 2–626th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
−46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
−7 Elo- Draymond Green suspended by league−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.