Golden State Warriors at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Klay ThompsonPoints23
- Stephen CurryAssists6
- Moses MoodyRebounds9
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints32
- Devin BookerAssists10
- Kevin DurantRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–123
- Q42.1Kevin Durant makes free throw 2 of 2115–123
- Q42.1Kevin Durant makes free throw 1 of 2115–122
- Q42.1Jonathan Kuminga personal take foul115–121
- Q44.1Devin Booker makes technical free throw115–121
- Q44.1Brandin Podziemski flopping technical foul115–120
- Q44.1Dario Saric out of bounds lost ball turnover115–120
- Q44.1Dario Saric offensive rebound115–120
- Q47.2Brandin Podziemski misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot115–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:50Stephen Curry makes 26-foot three point jumper (Chris Paul assists)GS 16 – 11 PHX · GS 43% → 49% +7GS 43% → 49%+7 pts
- Q15:42Dario Saric makes 25-foot three point jumper (Andrew Wiggins assists)GS 19 – 15 PHX · GS 41% → 47% +7GS 41% → 47%+7 pts
- Q210:58Klay Thompson makes 27-foot three point jumper (Chris Paul assists)GS 34 – 28 PHX · GS 47% → 54% +7GS 47% → 54%+7 pts
- Q210:30Grayson Allen makes 26-foot three pointer (Nassir Little assists)GS 33 – 31 PHX · PHX 46% → 56% +10PHX 46% → 56%+10 pts
- Q23:26Kevin Durant makes 23-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)GS 42 – 51 PHX · PHX 74% → 80% +6PHX 74% → 80%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -3
- PHX 62%
- Fair odds
- PHX -166
- GS +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 113.9 – 117.7 PHX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | PHX on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +3 | +85 | GS: Missing Draymond Green −1 · PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | GS crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +83 Elo | PHX 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 62.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 62.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30113.9 | Points scored | 117.38th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.5 | Points allowed | 114.919th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +2.412th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.0 | Offense rating | 114.99th of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.7 | Defense rating | 112.619th of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.9 | Pace | 99.623rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 2nd of 305–2 | Road vs home | 3–418th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+3 Elo- Draymond Green suspended by league−1 Elo
Suns
+85 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
GS 0–1 PHX in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.