Portland Trail Blazers at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Jerami GrantPoints26
- Jerami GrantAssists6
- Deandre AytonRebounds8
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints31
- Kevin DurantAssists9
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–120
- Q423.1Josh Okogie lost ball turnover (Rayan Rupert steals)107–120
- Q426.1Josh Okogie defensive rebound107–120
- Q432.1Rayan Rupert misses 16-foot pullup jump shot107–120
- Q440.1Josh Okogie enters the game for Devin Booker107–120
- Q440.1Nassir Little enters the game for Kevin Durant107–120
- Q440.1Trail Blazers offensive team rebound107–120
- Q440.1Moses Brown misses 3-foot two point shot107–120
- Q444.2Moses Brown offensive rebound107–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:21Malcolm Brogdon makes 25-foot step back jumpshotPOR 36 – 40 PHX · POR 15% → 20% +5POR 15% → 20%+5 pts
- Q26:52Malcolm Brogdon makes 25-foot three pointerPOR 39 – 40 PHX · POR 20% → 26% +6POR 20% → 26%+6 pts
- Q26:07Malcolm Brogdon makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jerami Grant assists)POR 42 – 42 PHX · POR 22% → 28% +6POR 22% → 28%+6 pts
- Q21:39Jerami Grant makes 24-foot three point jumper (Deandre Ayton assists)POR 48 – 52 PHX · POR 15% → 21% +6POR 15% → 21%+6 pts
- Q247.2Jerami Grant makes 25-foot three point jumper (Deandre Ayton assists)POR 51 – 54 PHX · POR 17% → 23% +6POR 17% → 23%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -9
- PHX 81%
- Fair odds
- PHX -325
- POR +325 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 108.4 – 117.4 PHX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1423 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −47 | +73 | POR: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | POR crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +252 Elo | PHX 81.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 75.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 76.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30102.9 | Points scored | 117.18th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.1 | Points allowed | 115.520th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−10.2 | Margin | +1.613th of 30 |
| 30th of 30101.3 | Offense rating | 114.09th of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.3 | Defense rating | 112.420th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.9 | Pace | 100.022nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 23rd of 302–5 | Road vs home | 2–422nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
+73 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.