Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints28
- Josh GiddeyAssists5
- Jaylin WilliamsRebounds7
Trail Blazers- Jerami GrantPoints14
- Skylar MaysAssists7
- Jabari WalkerRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game134–91
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter134–91
- Q423.0Moses Brown makes 1-foot dunk (Rayan Rupert assists)134–91
- Q430.0shot clock turnover134–89
- Q454.1Justin Minaya makes free throw 2 of 2134–89
- Q454.1Trail Blazers offensive team rebound134–88
- Q454.1Justin Minaya misses free throw 1 of 2134–88
- Q454.1Thunder Full timeout134–88
- Q454.1Aleksej Pokusevski personal foul134–88
- Q41:02Aleksej Pokusevski makes 24-foot three point jumper (Davis Bertans assists)134–88
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:45Toumani Camara makes 1-foot driving dunk (Deandre Ayton assists)OKC 0 – 2 POR · POR 34% → 38% +4POR 34% → 38%+4 pts
- Q111:30Chet Holmgren makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 3 – 2 POR · OKC 62% → 68% +6OKC 62% → 68%+6 pts
- Q16:07Luguentz Dort makes 22-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)OKC 16 – 9 POR · OKC 73% → 78% +5OKC 73% → 78%+5 pts
- Q12:28Davis Bertans makes 27-foot three point jumper (Luguentz Dort assists)OKC 25 – 15 POR · OKC 78% → 83% +5OKC 78% → 83%+5 pts
- Q11:45Skylar Mays makes 27-foot three point jumper (Matisse Thybulle assists)OKC 28 – 18 POR · POR 13% → 17% +4POR 13% → 17%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -6.5
- OKC 73%
- Fair odds
- OKC -195
- POR +195 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 114.7 – 109.6 POR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1437 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | OKC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +96 | −43 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · POR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +176 Elo | OKC 73.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 65.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 66.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30118.5 | Points scored | 103.930th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.3 | Points allowed | 111.312th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+6.2 | Margin | −7.427th of 30 |
| 9th of 30114.0 | Offense rating | 101.930th of 30 |
| 6th of 30108.0 | Defense rating | 109.19th of 30 |
| 6th of 30103.0 | Pace | 100.221st of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 1st of 305–1 | Road vs home | 1–424th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+96 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.