Oklahoma City Thunder at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints33
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists6
- Jalen WilliamsRebounds5
Rockets- Dillon BrooksPoints23
- Fred VanVleetAssists9
- Jabari Smith Jr.Rebounds18
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–110
- Q48.0shot clock turnover101–110
- Q431.1Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound101–110
- Q434.0Jaylin Williams misses layup101–110
- Q444.0Josh Giddey defensive rebound101–110
- Q446.2Aaron Holiday misses 12-foot jumper101–110
- Q41:06Josh Giddey makes driving layup (Tre Mann assists)101–110
- Q41:12Tari Eason makes free throw 2 of 299–110
- Q41:12Rockets offensive team rebound99–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:46Cason Wallace makes 22-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)OKC 59 – 63 HOU · OKC 34% → 44% +10OKC 34% → 44%+10 pts
- Q33:30Tre Mann makes 24-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 68 – 69 HOU · OKC 42% → 53% +11OKC 42% → 53%+11 pts
- Q33:05Dillon Brooks makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tari Eason assists)OKC 68 – 72 HOU · HOU 47% → 58% +11HOU 47% → 58%+11 pts
- Q31:34Isaiah Joe makes 27-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 71 – 76 HOU · OKC 26% → 37% +10OKC 26% → 37%+10 pts
- Q411:21Dillon Brooks makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Tari Eason assists)OKC 76 – 83 HOU · HOU 61% → 73% +12HOU 61% → 73%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -3.5
- OKC 64%
- Fair odds
- OKC -157
- HOU +157 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 114.3 – 110.9 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1566 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +113 | +24 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +100 Elo | OKC 63.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 60.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 61.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30119.7 | Points scored | 110.126th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.4 | Points allowed | 107.22nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+8.4 | Margin | +2.811th of 30 |
| 5th of 30116.9 | Offense rating | 111.120th of 30 |
| 5th of 30108.7 | Defense rating | 108.34th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.7 | Pace | 98.328th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–2 | Road vs home | 8–16th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+113 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.