Oklahoma City Thunder at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints32
- Chet HolmgrenAssists6
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds8
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints21
- Mike ConleyAssists8
- Rudy GobertRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–106
- Q40.0Kyle Anderson defensive rebound103–106
- Q41.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses 37-foot three point jumper103–106
- Q44.0Josh Giddey enters the game for Jaylin Williams103–106
- Q44.0Isaiah Joe enters the game for Luguentz Dort103–106
- Q44.0Thunder Full timeout103–106
- Q44.1Luguentz Dort defensive rebound103–106
- Q44.1Troy Brown Jr. misses free throw 2 of 2103–106
- Q44.1Nickeil Alexander-Walker enters the game for Naz Reid103–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:43Aaron Wiggins makes 23-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Joe assists)OKC 85 – 86 MIN · OKC 30% → 44% +15OKC 30% → 44%+15 pts
- Q46:17Aaron Wiggins makes 23-foot three point jumper (Chet Holmgren assists)OKC 88 – 88 MIN · OKC 33% → 49% +17OKC 33% → 49%+17 pts
- Q45:12Naz Reid makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kyle Anderson assists)OKC 90 – 93 MIN · MIN 51% → 69% +18MIN 51% → 69%+18 pts
- Q42:03Aaron Wiggins makes 1-foot layup (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 96 – 98 MIN · OKC 15% → 30% +15OKC 15% → 30%+15 pts
- Q41:39Troy Brown Jr. makes 29-foot three pointerOKC 96 – 101 MIN · MIN 72% → 92% +21MIN 72% → 92%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- MIN 50%
- Fair odds
- MIN -107
- OKC +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 113.1 – 113.5 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1558 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +103 | +70 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +1 Elo | MIN 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 51.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30119.6 | Points scored | 113.414th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.3 | Points allowed | 106.43rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+8.3 | Margin | +7.04th of 30 |
| 5th of 30116.6 | Offense rating | 111.714th of 30 |
| 7th of 30108.5 | Defense rating | 104.81st of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.6 | Pace | 100.817th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 1st of 306–1 | Road vs home | 7–15th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+103 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+70 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.