Minnesota Timberwolves at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints24
- Mike ConleyAssists10
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds8
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points18
- Desmond BaneAssists4
- Santi AldamaRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–97
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–97
- Q415.0Shaquille Harrison makes two point shot (Vince Williams Jr. assists)119–97
- Q438.1Josh Minott makes 1-foot layup (Leonard Miller assists)119–95
- Q454.1Kenneth Lofton Jr. makes 9-foot two point shot117–95
- Q41:07Daishen Nix makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot117–93
- Q41:12Leonard Miller defensive rebound114–93
- Q41:15Shaquille Harrison misses layup114–93
- Q41:28Leonard Miller makes two point shot (Shake Milton assists)114–93
- Q41:39Leonard Miller defensive rebound112–93
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:42Mike Conley makes 26-foot three pointer (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 3 – 0 MEM · MIN 66% → 72% +6MIN 66% → 72%+6 pts
- Q110:50Desmond Bane makes 25-foot three point jumper (Santi Aldama assists)MIN 5 – 3 MEM · MEM 25% → 30% +5MEM 25% → 30%+5 pts
- Q19:33Karl-Anthony Towns makes 26-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 12 – 3 MEM · MIN 77% → 81% +5MIN 77% → 81%+5 pts
- Q142.1Shake Milton makes 25-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 29 – 24 MEM · MIN 68% → 75% +6MIN 68% → 75%+6 pts
- Q29:50Troy Brown Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Shake Milton assists)MIN 40 – 28 MEM · MIN 82% → 86% +5MIN 82% → 86%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -6
- MIN 73%
- Fair odds
- MIN -195
- MEM +195 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 112.9 – 107.9 MEM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1420 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +66 | −16 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +175 Elo | MIN 73.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 65.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 66.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30113.0 | Points scored | 106.229th of 30 |
| 4th of 30107.0 | Points allowed | 113.718th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+6.0 | Margin | −7.526th of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.3 | Offense rating | 103.929th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30105.4 | Defense rating | 111.314th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.8 | Pace | 101.415th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 11th of 304–3 | Road vs home | 0–730th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+66 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.