Sacramento Kings at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints36
- De'Aaron FoxAssists12
- Domantas SabonisRebounds11
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints35
- Mike ConleyAssists9
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–111
- Q40.0Timberwolves offensive team rebound124–111
- Q40.1Troy Brown Jr. misses 60-foot three point jumper124–111
- Q41.0De'Aaron Fox makes two point shot (Harrison Barnes assists)124–111
- Q44.1Harrison Barnes defensive rebound122–111
- Q47.1Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses 23-foot three point jumper122–111
- Q418.2Harrison Barnes makes free throw 2 of 2122–111
- Q418.2Harrison Barnes makes free throw 1 of 2121–111
- Q418.2Nickeil Alexander-Walker personal foul120–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:33Kessler Edwards makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kevin Huerter assists)SAC 68 – 59 MIN · SAC 57% → 65% +8SAC 57% → 65%+8 pts
- Q250.0Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 24-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)SAC 70 – 62 MIN · MIN 29% → 37% +8MIN 29% → 37%+8 pts
- Q39:11Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 25-foot step back jumpshot (Mike Conley assists)SAC 72 – 70 MIN · MIN 44% → 53% +9MIN 44% → 53%+9 pts
- Q36:38De'Aaron Fox makes 24-foot three pointerSAC 80 – 72 MIN · SAC 58% → 67% +9SAC 58% → 67%+9 pts
- Q35:12Trey Lyles makes 22-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)SAC 83 – 72 MIN · SAC 69% → 77% +9SAC 69% → 77%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -5
- MIN 69%
- Fair odds
- MIN -175
- SAC +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 110.6 – 114.9 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1568 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +45 | +76 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +139 Elo | MIN 69.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 63.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 63.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30114.9 | Points scored | 113.118th of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.6 | Points allowed | 105.83rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +7.43rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.7 | Offense rating | 111.514th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.4 | Defense rating | 104.31st of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.3 | Pace | 100.620th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 15th of 304–5 | Road vs home | 7–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+76 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.