Philadelphia 76ers at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- De'Anthony MeltonPoints16
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists8
- Paul ReedRebounds9
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints31
- Mike ConleyAssists8
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–112
- Q40.076ers offensive team rebound99–112
- Q40.1Danuel House Jr. misses 47-foot three point jumper99–112
- Q41.0shot clock turnover99–112
- Q424.0Leonard Miller defensive rebound99–112
- Q427.1Furkan Korkmaz misses 31-foot three point shot99–112
- Q432.0KJ Martin defensive rebound99–112
- Q434.2Luka Garza misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot99–112
- Q442.1Luka Garza defensive rebound99–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:27Marcus Morris Sr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tobias Harris assists)PHI 35 – 39 MIN · PHI 21% → 27% +6PHI 21% → 27%+6 pts
- Q26:08Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot step back jumpshotPHI 35 – 42 MIN · MIN 73% → 79% +6MIN 73% → 79%+6 pts
- Q22:21De'Anthony Melton makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tobias Harris assists)PHI 45 – 50 MIN · PHI 19% → 25% +6PHI 19% → 25%+6 pts
- Q311:47Marcus Morris Sr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 52 – 57 MIN · PHI 19% → 25% +7PHI 19% → 25%+7 pts
- Q311:24Anthony Edwards makes 26-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)PHI 52 – 60 MIN · MIN 75% → 81% +7MIN 75% → 81%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -4
- MIN 66%
- Fair odds
- MIN -199
- PHI +199 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 111.0 – 116.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +44 | +76 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +119 Elo | MIN 66.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 66.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 66.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30120.4 | Points scored | 113.218th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.2 | Points allowed | 106.32nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+8.1 | Margin | +6.94th of 30 |
| 4th of 30118.2 | Offense rating | 111.517th of 30 |
| 10th of 30110.2 | Defense rating | 104.71st of 30 |
| 16th of 30101.1 | Pace | 100.721st of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 2nd of 304–1 | Road vs home | 6–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+76 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.