Philadelphia 76ers at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints32
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists10
- Joel EmbiidRebounds12
Nets- Lonnie Walker IVPoints26
- Spencer DinwiddieAssists5
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–99
- Q423.2Mo Bamba makes 2-foot dunk (Patrick Beverley assists)121–99
- Q439.0Jaden Springer defensive rebound119–99
- Q442.1Trendon Watford misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot119–99
- Q447.1Patrick Beverley makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot (Jaden Springer assists)119–99
- Q41:01Day'Ron Sharpe makes two point shot117–99
- Q41:01Day'Ron Sharpe offensive rebound117–97
- Q41:01Trendon Watford misses 6-foot two point shot117–97
- Q41:22Furkan Korkmaz makes free throw 1 of 1117–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:13Lonnie Walker IV makes 26-foot three pointerPHI 33 – 32 BKN · BKN 34% → 41% +7BKN 34% → 41%+7 pts
- Q26:07Marcus Morris Sr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 38 – 36 BKN · PHI 53% → 61% +8PHI 53% → 61%+8 pts
- Q25:12Lonnie Walker IV makes 22-foot three point jumper (Dorian Finney-Smith assists)PHI 38 – 40 BKN · BKN 42% → 50% +8BKN 42% → 50%+8 pts
- Q24:22Nicolas Batum makes 25-foot three point jumper (Joel Embiid assists)PHI 41 – 42 BKN · PHI 45% → 53% +8PHI 45% → 53%+8 pts
- Q23:07De'Anthony Melton makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 47 – 44 BKN · PHI 56% → 64% +8PHI 56% → 64%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
76ers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -2.5
- PHI 59%
- Fair odds
- PHI -134
- BKN +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 115.8 – 113.5 BKN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +92 | +24 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Missing Cam Thomas −10 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +64 Elo | PHI 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 57.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30120.4 | Points scored | 114.311th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.5 | Points allowed | 113.315th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+7.9 | Margin | +1.016th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30118.2 | Offense rating | 113.610th of 30 |
| 13th of 30110.4 | Defense rating | 112.620th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.8 | Pace | 100.620th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303–1 | Road vs home | 3–316th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+92 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
+24 Elo- Cam Thomas sprained left ankle−10 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.