Philadelphia 76ers at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints32
- Joel EmbiidAssists8
- Tobias HarrisRebounds10
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints22
- Trae YoungAssists13
- Clint CapelaRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–116
- Q40.076ers offensive team rebound126–116
- Q40.1Joel Embiid misses 25-foot three point jumper126–116
- Q40.1Dejounte Murray traveling126–116
- Q40.1De'Anthony Melton bad pass (Dejounte Murray steals)126–116
- Q42.1Clint Capela makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Jalen Johnson assists)126–116
- Q47.0Jaden Springer makes 1-foot dunk (De'Anthony Melton assists)126–114
- Q410.2Trae Young lost ball turnover (De'Anthony Melton steals)124–114
- Q415.1De'Anthony Melton makes free throw 2 of 2124–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:13Tyrese Maxey makes 23-foot three point jumper (Patrick Beverley assists)PHI 78 – 76 ATL · PHI 46% → 57% +11PHI 46% → 57%+11 pts
- Q31:03Danuel House Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Joel Embiid assists)PHI 89 – 82 ATL · PHI 65% → 75% +10PHI 65% → 75%+10 pts
- Q315.1Trae Young makes 27-foot three pointerPHI 92 – 87 ATL · ATL 21% → 31% +10ATL 21% → 31%+10 pts
- Q410:13Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)PHI 99 – 94 ATL · ATL 19% → 29% +10ATL 19% → 29%+10 pts
- Q49:53De'Anthony Melton makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaden Springer assists)PHI 102 – 94 ATL · PHI 71% → 82% +10PHI 71% → 82%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hawks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- ATL 49%
- Fair odds
- ATL -103
- PHI +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 116.5 – 116.7 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +85 | +73 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +6 Elo | PHI 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 50.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30119.9 | Points scored | 120.33rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.2 | Points allowed | 117.224th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+7.7 | Margin | +3.110th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.7 | Offense rating | 116.35th of 30 |
| 11th of 30110.1 | Defense rating | 113.324th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.7 | Pace | 103.55th of 30 |
| 1st of 298–2 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 29 |
| 4th of 302–1 | Road vs home | 2–321st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+85 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+73 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.