New York Knicks at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Julius RandlePoints29
- Julius RandleAssists8
- Mitchell RobinsonRebounds15
Hawks- Bogdan BogdanovicPoints28
- Trae YoungAssists17
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–114
- Q43.2Donte DiVincenzo enters the game for Mitchell Robinson116–114
- Q43.2Dejounte Murray lane violation116–114
- Q43.2Knicks defensive team rebound116–114
- Q43.2Dejounte Murray misses free throw 2 of 2116–114
- Q43.2Mitchell Robinson enters the game for Donte DiVincenzo116–114
- Q43.2Onyeka Okongwu enters the game for Saddiq Bey116–114
- Q43.2Dejounte Murray makes free throw 1 of 2116–114
- Q43.2Jalen Brunson personal take foul116–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:54Jalen Brunson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)NY 102 – 101 ATL · NY 33% → 54% +21NY 33% → 54%+21 pts
- Q42:01Jalen Brunson makes 22-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)NY 108 – 107 ATL · NY 28% → 58% +29NY 28% → 58%+29 pts
- Q443.0Julius Randle makes layup (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 112 – 110 ATL · NY 49% → 79% +31NY 49% → 79%+31 pts
- Q419.1Jalen Brunson makes 16-foot pullup jump shotNY 114 – 111 ATL · NY 73% → 97% +24NY 73% → 97%+24 pts
- Q415.1Dejounte Murray makes driving layup (Trae Young assists)NY 114 – 113 ATL · ATL 2% → 24% +23ATL 2% → 24%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hawks 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -2
- ATL 59%
- Fair odds
- ATL -160
- NY +160 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 111.4 – 115.0 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | ATL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −16 | +76 | NY: Weaker than its recent lineups · ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +61 Elo | ATL 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 61.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 61.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30108.4 | Points scored | 120.94th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.3 | Points allowed | 117.323rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.1 | Margin | +3.69th of 30 |
| 16th of 30110.3 | Offense rating | 116.35th of 30 |
| 4th of 30106.2 | Defense rating | 112.821st of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.0 | Pace | 104.03rd of 30 |
| 14th of 302–3 | Road vs home | 2–218th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+76 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NY 1–0 ATL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.