Brooklyn Nets at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Mikal BridgesPoints23
- Spencer DinwiddieAssists7
- Mikal BridgesRebounds7
Heat- Jimmy Butler IIIPoints36
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Assists5
- Kevin LoveRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–122
- Q411.0Bam Adebayo defensive rebound115–122
- Q413.1Day'Ron Sharpe misses 5-foot two point shot115–122
- Q419.0Nets offensive team rebound115–122
- Q419.0Day'Ron Sharpe misses 9-foot jumper115–122
- Q431.0Day'Ron Sharpe defensive rebound115–122
- Q435.0Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses 29-foot three point jumper115–122
- Q453.0Day'Ron Sharpe makes 3-foot hook shot (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)115–122
- Q41:03Dennis Smith Jr. enters the game for Cameron Johnson113–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:50Spencer Dinwiddie makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cameron Johnson assists)BKN 45 – 43 MIA · BKN 41% → 49% +8BKN 41% → 49%+8 pts
- Q21:11Jimmy Butler makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kevin Love assists)BKN 52 – 53 MIA · MIA 50% → 58% +9MIA 50% → 58%+9 pts
- Q225.1Duncan Robinson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kyle Lowry assists)BKN 52 – 58 MIA · MIA 64% → 72% +8MIA 64% → 72%+8 pts
- Q37:25Duncan Robinson makes 28-foot running pullup jump shotBKN 61 – 69 MIA · MIA 70% → 78% +8MIA 70% → 78%+8 pts
- Q34:43Mikal Bridges makes 23-foot three point jumper (Royce O'Neale assists)BKN 71 – 77 MIA · BKN 18% → 26% +8BKN 18% → 26%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Heat 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -1.5
- MIA 56%
- Fair odds
- MIA -135
- BKN +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 110.6 – 112.9 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +19 | +25 | BKN: Missing Cam Thomas −10 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +39 Elo | MIA 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 57.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30114.2 | Points scored | 109.624th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.5 | Points allowed | 109.87th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.7 | Margin | −0.217th of 30 |
| 8th of 30113.1 | Offense rating | 109.619th of 30 |
| 18th of 30111.4 | Defense rating | 109.811th of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.9 | Pace | 99.924th of 30 |
| 6th of 296–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 29 |
| 6th of 303–2 | Road vs home | 3–19th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
+19 Elo- Cam Thomas not with team−10 Elo
Heat
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BKN 1–0 MIA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.