Cleveland Cavaliers at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Darius GarlandPoints32
- Craig Porter Jr.Assists9
- Jarrett AllenRebounds13
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints32
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists6
- Joel EmbiidRebounds13
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game122–119
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime122–119
- OT1.1Nicolas Batum bad pass (Dean Wade steals)122–119
- OT2.0De'Anthony Melton enters the game for Patrick Beverley122–119
- OT2.0Max Strus enters the game for Darius Garland122–119
- OT2.076ers Full timeout122–119
- OT2.076ers offensive team rebound122–119
- OT3.1Tyrese Maxey misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot122–119
- OT9.1Nicolas Batum enters the game for De'Anthony Melton122–119
- OT9.1Darius Garland makes free throw 2 of 2122–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:42Darius Garland makes 26-foot jump bank shot (Dean Wade assists)CLE 106 – 104 PHI · CLE 36% → 68% +32CLE 36% → 68%+32 pts
- Q416.0Patrick Beverley makes 14-foot driving floating jump shot (De'Anthony Melton assists)CLE 108 – 110 PHI · PHI 51% → 92% +41PHI 51% → 92%+41 pts
- OT54.1Craig Porter makes driving layup (Darius Garland assists)CLE 118 – 116 PHI · CLE 47% → 76% +28CLE 47% → 76%+28 pts
- OT37.1Tobias Harris makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)CLE 118 – 119 PHI · PHI 19% → 70% +50PHI 19% → 70%+50 pts
- OT18.0Jarrett Allen makes 8-foot hook shot (Craig Porter assists)CLE 120 – 119 PHI · CLE 24% → 73% +49CLE 24% → 73%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
76ers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -5.5
- PHI 71%
- Fair odds
- PHI -214
- CLE +214 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 110.8 – 116.6 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1559 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +30 | +108 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +157 Elo | PHI 71.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 67.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 68.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30111.2 | Points scored | 120.54th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.0 | Points allowed | 111.512th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +9.02nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30110.8 | Offense rating | 118.91st of 30 |
| 13th of 30110.6 | Defense rating | 110.011th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30100.1 | Pace | 101.316th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 9th of 304–3 | Road vs home | 6–211th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+108 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.