New York Knicks at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints25
- Jalen BrunsonAssists6
- Julius RandleRebounds14
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints23
- Anthony EdwardsAssists5
- Anthony EdwardsRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–117
- Q45.0shot clock turnover100–117
- Q428.0Josh Minott defensive rebound100–117
- Q432.0DaQuan Jeffries misses driving layup100–117
- Q445.1Kyle Anderson enters the game for Naz Reid100–117
- Q445.1Naz Reid turnover100–117
- Q445.1Naz Reid offensive charge100–117
- Q456.0Josh Minott defensive rebound100–117
- Q457.1DaQuan Jeffries misses free throw 2 of 2100–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q147.1RJ Barrett makes 25-foot three point jumper (Donte DiVincenzo assists)NY 28 – 29 MIN · NY 33% → 40% +7NY 33% → 40%+7 pts
- Q26:52Donte DiVincenzo makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 44 – 48 MIN · NY 26% → 33% +7NY 26% → 33%+7 pts
- Q23:40Jalen Brunson makes 23-foot step back jumpshot (Donte DiVincenzo assists)NY 52 – 53 MIN · NY 33% → 40% +8NY 33% → 40%+8 pts
- Q21:09Mike Conley makes 23-foot three point jumper (Troy Brown Jr. assists)NY 54 – 58 MIN · MIN 60% → 68% +8MIN 60% → 68%+8 pts
- Q311:17Karl-Anthony Towns makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)NY 56 – 63 MIN · MIN 68% → 75% +8MIN 68% → 75%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -2
- MIN 57%
- Fair odds
- MIN -145
- NY +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 108.6 – 111.5 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1563 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +32 | +60 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +49 Elo | MIN 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 59.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30110.9 | Points scored | 112.916th of 30 |
| 1st of 30104.9 | Points allowed | 106.85th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+6.0 | Margin | +6.14th of 30 |
| 11th of 30113.2 | Offense rating | 111.014th of 30 |
| 5th of 30107.1 | Defense rating | 105.12nd of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.8 | Pace | 100.818th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 6th of 305–3 | Road vs home | 5–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+60 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.