New York Knicks at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints32
- Julius RandleAssists8
- Mitchell RobinsonRebounds8
Wizards- Kyle KuzmaPoints19
- Kyle KuzmaAssists5
- Daniel GaffordRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–99
- Q44.1Jericho Sims defensive rebound120–99
- Q44.1Bilal Coulibaly misses 25-foot three point jumper120–99
- Q427.1Miles McBride makes 25-foot three pointer120–99
- Q441.0Eugene Omoruyi makes 9-foot two point shot (Anthony Gill assists)117–99
- Q446.1Anthony Gill defensive rebound117–97
- Q448.1Josh Hart misses 8-foot two point shot117–97
- Q41:12Anthony Gill makes free throw 2 of 2117–97
- Q41:12Ryan Arcidiacono enters the game for Mitchell Robinson117–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:45Josh Hart makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 72 – 64 WSH · NY 71% → 78% +8NY 71% → 78%+8 pts
- Q34:17Kyle Kuzma makes 22-foot three point jumper (Bilal Coulibaly assists)NY 80 – 73 WSH · WSH 15% → 23% +7WSH 15% → 23%+7 pts
- Q31:06Corey Kispert makes 22-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)NY 87 – 82 WSH · WSH 18% → 27% +9WSH 18% → 27%+9 pts
- Q49:28Corey Kispert makes two point shotNY 95 – 90 WSH · WSH 18% → 25% +7WSH 18% → 25%+7 pts
- Q49:04Jalen Brunson makes 17-foot pullup jump shot (Immanuel Quickley assists)NY 97 – 90 WSH · NY 75% → 82% +7NY 75% → 82%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Knicks 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -4
- NY 65%
- Fair odds
- NY -140
- WSH +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 114.3 – 111.8 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1452 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −2 | −53 | NY: Missing RJ Barrett −17 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +108 Elo | NY 65.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 58.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30109.1 | Points scored | 115.58th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.2 | Points allowed | 123.228th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+3.9 | Margin | −7.729th of 30 |
| 16th of 30111.0 | Offense rating | 108.821st of 30 |
| 5th of 30107.1 | Defense rating | 116.126th of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.0 | Pace | 106.11st of 30 |
| 7th of 296–4 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 29 |
| 10th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 1–323rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
−2 Elo- RJ Barrett migraine−17 Elo
Wizards
−53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.