New York Knicks at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints32
- Julius RandleAssists8
- Mitchell RobinsonRebounds14
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints34
- LaMelo BallAssists9
- Mark WilliamsRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–108
- Q417.0Julius Randle defensive rebound122–108
- Q419.0P.J. Washington misses 25-foot three point jumper122–108
- Q428.2Jalen Brunson makes driving layup122–108
- Q445.1P.J. Washington makes 26-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)120–108
- Q453.1Josh Hart makes layup (Donte DiVincenzo assists)120–105
- Q41:00LaMelo Ball makes 25-foot three pointer118–105
- Q41:08Mitchell Robinson makes tip shot118–102
- Q41:08Mitchell Robinson offensive rebound116–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:23Jalen Brunson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Donte DiVincenzo assists)NY 56 – 48 CHA · NY 69% → 76% +7NY 69% → 76%+7 pts
- Q229.0Donte DiVincenzo makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 59 – 50 CHA · NY 72% → 79% +7NY 72% → 79%+7 pts
- Q38:04Brandon Miller makes 24-foot three pointer (Mark Williams assists)NY 69 – 61 CHA · CHA 16% → 22% +6CHA 16% → 22%+6 pts
- Q49:37LaMelo Ball makes 26-foot three point jumper (Miles Bridges assists)NY 94 – 88 CHA · CHA 13% → 22% +9CHA 13% → 22%+9 pts
- Q48:32RJ Barrett makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 99 – 88 CHA · NY 86% → 93% +7NY 86% → 93%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Knicks 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -5
- NY 69%
- Fair odds
- NY -137
- CHA +137 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 113.8 – 111.4 CHA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1418 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | CHA and NY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +30 | −7 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +139 Elo | NY 68.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 57.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30110.0 | Points scored | 113.514th of 30 |
| 1st of 30104.7 | Points allowed | 122.627th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+5.3 | Margin | −9.129th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.2 | Offense rating | 110.119th of 30 |
| 5th of 30106.8 | Defense rating | 118.930th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.8 | Pace | 103.18th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 8th of 304–3 | Road vs home | 1–526th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NY 1–0 CHA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.