Phoenix Suns at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints40
- Jusuf NurkicAssists6
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds11
Grizzlies- Santi AldamaPoints21
- Desmond BaneAssists10
- Jaren Jackson Jr.Rebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–89
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–89
- Q40.1Jusuf Nurkic defensive rebound110–89
- Q43.1Ziaire Williams misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot110–89
- Q413.1Devin Booker makes 27-foot three point shot110–89
- Q431.1Kenneth Lofton Jr. makes 12-foot jumper (Ziaire Williams assists)107–89
- Q443.1Devin Booker makes free throw 2 of 2107–87
- Q443.1Devin Booker makes free throw 1 of 2106–87
- Q443.1Kenneth Lofton Jr. shooting foul105–87
- Q451.0Suns defensive team rebound105–87
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:33Santi Aldama makes 22-foot three point jumperPHX 43 – 41 MEM · MEM 34% → 41% +7MEM 34% → 41%+7 pts
- Q24:43Eric Gordon makes 26-foot three point jumper (Grayson Allen assists)PHX 48 – 46 MEM · PHX 51% → 59% +8PHX 51% → 59%+8 pts
- Q24:17Santi Aldama makes 25-foot three point shot (Derrick Rose assists)PHX 48 – 49 MEM · MEM 41% → 49% +8MEM 41% → 49%+8 pts
- Q21:17Eric Gordon makes 26-foot three point jumper (Keita Bates-Diop assists)PHX 57 – 49 MEM · PHX 67% → 75% +7PHX 67% → 75%+7 pts
- Q411:20Devin Booker makes 24-foot three pointerPHX 84 – 73 MEM · PHX 82% → 89% +7PHX 82% → 89%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -2.5
- PHX 60%
- Fair odds
- PHX -121
- MEM +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 114.8 – 113.4 MEM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1433 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +37 | −1 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | PHX crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +74 Elo | PHX 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 54.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.7 | Points scored | 107.428th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.9 | Points allowed | 114.017th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.8 | Margin | −6.625th of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.1 | Offense rating | 104.429th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.4 | Defense rating | 110.813th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.9 | Pace | 102.29th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 305–2 | Road vs home | 0–630th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.