Philadelphia 76ers at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints35
- Joel EmbiidAssists9
- Joel EmbiidRebounds11
Thunder- Chet HolmgrenPoints33
- Josh GiddeyAssists8
- Josh GiddeyRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–123
- Q40.0Thunder offensive team rebound127–123
- Q40.0Chet Holmgren misses 28-foot three point jumper127–123
- Q41.1Joel Embiid makes free throw 2 of 2127–123
- Q41.1Jaylin Williams enters the game for Josh Giddey126–123
- Q41.1Joel Embiid makes free throw 1 of 2126–123
- Q41.1Chet Holmgren personal take foul125–123
- Q42.1Chet Holmgren makes 1-foot dunk (Josh Giddey assists)125–123
- Q43.1Josh Giddey enters the game for Jaylin Williams125–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:20Tyrese Maxey makes 23-foot three point shot (Tobias Harris assists)PHI 78 – 75 OKC · PHI 43% → 53% +10PHI 43% → 53%+10 pts
- Q34:04Isaiah Joe makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ousmane Dieng assists)PHI 80 – 78 OKC · OKC 39% → 49% +11OKC 39% → 49%+11 pts
- Q33:11Nicolas Batum makes 22-foot three point jumper (Tobias Harris assists)PHI 85 – 80 OKC · PHI 51% → 62% +11PHI 51% → 62%+11 pts
- Q32:42Tobias Harris makes 24-foot three point jumper (Joel Embiid assists)PHI 88 – 80 OKC · PHI 62% → 72% +10PHI 62% → 72%+10 pts
- Q41:19De'Anthony Melton makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tobias Harris assists)PHI 117 – 110 OKC · PHI 89% → 98% +10PHI 89% → 98%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -3.5
- OKC 63%
- Fair odds
- OKC -159
- PHI +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 113.5 – 117.0 OKC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1568 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +81 | +111 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +92 Elo | OKC 63.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 61.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 61.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30118.9 | Points scored | 119.35th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.2 | Points allowed | 110.29th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+6.7 | Margin | +9.11st of 30 |
| 5th of 30116.9 | Offense rating | 116.16th of 30 |
| 11th of 30110.3 | Defense rating | 107.36th of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.0 | Pace | 101.99th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 3rd of 304–2 | Road vs home | 5–314th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+81 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+111 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.