Chicago Bulls at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- DeMar DeRozanPoints25
- DeMar DeRozanAssists6
- Nikola VucevicRebounds12
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints40
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists12
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–116
- Q40.1shot clock turnover102–116
- Q425.0Coby White lost ball turnover (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander steals)102–116
- Q428.0Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2102–116
- Q428.0Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2102–115
- Q428.0Patrick Williams personal foul102–114
- Q429.0Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound102–114
- Q431.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander blocks Alex Caruso 's 2-foot driving layup102–114
- Q442.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2102–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:16Isaiah Joe makes 26-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)CHI 69 – 72 OKC · OKC 64% → 73% +9OKC 64% → 73%+9 pts
- Q410:32Kenrich Williams makes 23-foot three point jumper (Vasilije Micic assists)CHI 80 – 87 OKC · OKC 77% → 86% +9OKC 77% → 86%+9 pts
- Q48:26Nikola Vucevic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)CHI 87 – 91 OKC · CHI 13% → 23% +10CHI 13% → 23%+10 pts
- Q44:33Patrick Williams makes 22-foot three point jumper (Alex Caruso assists)CHI 95 – 98 OKC · CHI 11% → 24% +13CHI 11% → 24%+13 pts
- Q44:09Chet Holmgren makes 2-foot layup (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)CHI 95 – 100 OKC · OKC 76% → 86% +10OKC 76% → 86%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -8
- OKC 78%
- Fair odds
- OKC -269
- CHI +269 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 108.8 – 116.3 OKC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1563 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −1 | +110 | CHI: Missing Zach LaVine −2, Lonzo Ball −2 · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | OKC crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +223 Elo | OKC 78.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 72.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 72.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30106.7 | Points scored | 119.66th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.0 | Points allowed | 110.89th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−4.3 | Margin | +8.82nd of 30 |
| 26th of 30107.7 | Offense rating | 115.67th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.0 | Defense rating | 107.14th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.8 | Pace | 102.57th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 25th of 301–4 | Road vs home | 4–314th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−1 Elo- Zach LaVine right foot−2 Elo
- Lonzo Ball left knee surgery−2 Elo
Thunder
+110 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 0–1 OKC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.