Miami Heat at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Jimmy Butler IIIPoints25
- Duncan RobinsonAssists7
- Bam AdebayoRebounds10
Bulls- DeMar DeRozanPoints23
- Zach LaVineAssists6
- Andre DrummondRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–102
- Q41.0Nikola Vucevic defensive rebound97–102
- Q41.0Kyle Lowry misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot97–102
- Q45.1DeMar DeRozan makes free throw 2 of 297–102
- Q45.1DeMar DeRozan makes free throw 1 of 297–101
- Q45.1Kyle Lowry personal foul97–100
- Q45.1DeMar DeRozan defensive rebound97–100
- Q46.1Jimmy Butler misses 23-foot three point jumper97–100
- Q410.2Torrey Craig enters the game for Coby White97–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:54Jimmy Butler makes pullup jump shot (Bam Adebayo assists)MIA 94 – 91 CHI · MIA 62% → 80% +18MIA 62% → 80%+18 pts
- Q41:39DeMar DeRozan makes 23-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)MIA 94 – 94 CHI · CHI 19% → 48% +29CHI 19% → 48%+29 pts
- Q451.1Alex Caruso makes 25-foot three point jumper (Zach LaVine assists)MIA 94 – 97 CHI · CHI 49% → 87% +39CHI 49% → 87%+39 pts
- Q442.1Jimmy Butler makes 22-foot step back jumpshotMIA 97 – 97 CHI · MIA 10% → 51% +41MIA 10% → 51%+41 pts
- Q421.2DeMar DeRozan makes 18-foot two point shotMIA 97 – 99 CHI · CHI 49% → 88% +39CHI 49% → 88%+39 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Heat 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -3
- MIA 63%
- Fair odds
- MIA -157
- CHI +157 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 112.4 – 109.0 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +33 | +2 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +91 Elo | MIA 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 60.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 61.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30110.7 | Points scored | 107.629th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.3 | Points allowed | 111.513th of 30 |
| 18th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −3.923rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30110.9 | Offense rating | 107.625th of 30 |
| 14th of 30110.5 | Defense rating | 111.618th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.7 | Pace | 98.528th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 9th of 304–3 | Road vs home | 3–521st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.