Miami Heat at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints23
- Bam AdebayoAssists6
- Bam AdebayoRebounds11
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints20
- DeMar DeRozanAssists5
- Nikola VucevicRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–100
- Q422.1Ayo Dosunmu makes free throw 2 of 2118–100
- Q422.1Ayo Dosunmu makes free throw 1 of 2118–99
- Q422.1Orlando Robinson shooting foul118–98
- Q428.1shot clock turnover118–98
- Q429.0Haywood Highsmith offensive rebound118–98
- Q429.1Jevon Carter blocks Haywood Highsmith 's 8-foot jumper118–98
- Q452.1Patrick Williams makes 1-foot two point shot118–98
- Q457.0Patrick Williams defensive rebound118–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:25Zach LaVine makes 25-foot step back jumpshotMIA 67 – 64 CHI · CHI 31% → 39% +8CHI 31% → 39%+8 pts
- Q38:42Kyle Lowry makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bam Adebayo assists)MIA 73 – 64 CHI · MIA 70% → 77% +8MIA 70% → 77%+8 pts
- Q38:02Coby White makes 28-foot three point jumper (Alex Caruso assists)MIA 75 – 70 CHI · CHI 25% → 33% +8CHI 25% → 33%+8 pts
- Q37:10Kyle Lowry makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler assists)MIA 78 – 72 CHI · MIA 61% → 70% +9MIA 61% → 70%+9 pts
- Q34:26Haywood Highsmith makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler assists)MIA 85 – 76 CHI · MIA 72% → 80% +8MIA 72% → 80%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Heat 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -1
- MIA 53%
- Fair odds
- MIA -110
- CHI +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 110.2 – 109.5 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +29 | +7 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +22 Elo | MIA 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 52.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30109.6 | Points scored | 107.229th of 30 |
| 7th of 30109.6 | Points allowed | 110.58th of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | −3.322nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30110.3 | Offense rating | 107.725th of 30 |
| 12th of 30110.3 | Defense rating | 111.017th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.3 | Pace | 98.229th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 14th of 304–4 | Road vs home | 4–519th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 0–1 CHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.