Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Jalen WilliamsPoints23
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists9
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds11
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints36
- Luka DoncicAssists18
- Dereck Lively IIRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–120
- Q40.0Mavericks offensive team rebound126–120
- Q42.1Derrick Jones Jr. misses 25-foot three point jumper126–120
- Q48.2Jalen Williams makes free throw 2 of 2126–120
- Q48.2Aaron Wiggins enters the game for Isaiah Joe125–120
- Q48.2Jalen Williams makes free throw 1 of 2125–120
- Q48.2Dereck Lively II personal take foul124–120
- Q413.0Luka Doncic personal take foul124–120
- Q415.1Thunder defensive team rebound124–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:25Isaiah Joe makes 24-foot three pointer (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 116 – 117 DAL · OKC 25% → 46% +21OKC 25% → 46%+21 pts
- Q42:18A.J. Lawson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)OKC 116 – 120 DAL · DAL 56% → 81% +25DAL 56% → 81%+25 pts
- Q41:42Chet Holmgren makes 1-foot dunkOKC 118 – 120 DAL · OKC 15% → 31% +16OKC 15% → 31%+16 pts
- Q41:12Chet Holmgren makes two point shotOKC 120 – 120 DAL · OKC 27% → 52% +25OKC 27% → 52%+25 pts
- Q440.1Jalen Williams makes 1-foot two point shotOKC 122 – 120 DAL · OKC 52% → 82% +31OKC 52% → 82%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -6
- OKC 73%
- Fair odds
- OKC -183
- DAL +183 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 119.2 – 114.6 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1562 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +117 | +30 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +169 Elo | OKC 72.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 63.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 64.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30119.4 | Points scored | 118.16th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.9 | Points allowed | 117.622nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+8.5 | Margin | +0.616th of 30 |
| 5th of 30116.6 | Offense rating | 115.79th of 30 |
| 5th of 30108.3 | Defense rating | 115.223rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.6 | Pace | 102.18th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 1st of 306–2 | Road vs home | 5–313th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+117 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.