Memphis Grizzlies at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Desmond BanePoints30
- Desmond BaneAssists5
- Santi AldamaRebounds12
Mavericks- Grant WilliamsPoints16
- Kyrie IrvingAssists5
- Grant WilliamsRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–94
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–94
- Q41.1Kenneth Lofton Jr. defensive rebound108–94
- Q41.1Jaden Hardy misses 25-foot three point jumper108–94
- Q410.0shot clock turnover108–94
- Q430.1Shaquille Harrison defensive rebound108–94
- Q436.1Dexter Dennis misses 24-foot three point jumper108–94
- Q439.0Jaden Hardy defensive rebound108–94
- Q441.1Richaun Holmes blocks Kenneth Lofton Jr. 's 3-foot layup108–94
- Q41:01Kenneth Lofton Jr. defensive rebound108–94
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:11Seth Curry makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kyrie Irving assists)MEM 72 – 63 DAL · DAL 20% → 28% +8DAL 20% → 28%+8 pts
- Q32:53Seth Curry makes 25-foot three point shot (Richaun Holmes assists)MEM 74 – 68 DAL · DAL 26% → 36% +10DAL 26% → 36%+10 pts
- Q32:33Santi Aldama makes 25-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)MEM 77 – 68 DAL · MEM 65% → 74% +10MEM 65% → 74%+10 pts
- Q411:15Markieff Morris makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Green assists)MEM 81 – 75 DAL · DAL 21% → 32% +10DAL 21% → 32%+10 pts
- Q49:47Jaylen Nowell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Vince Williams Jr. assists)MEM 86 – 75 DAL · MEM 78% → 87% +9MEM 78% → 87%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -4.5
- DAL 67%
- Fair odds
- DAL -176
- MEM +176 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 111.6 – 115.9 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1424 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −12 | −5 | MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups · DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +121 Elo | DAL 66.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 63.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 63.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30105.6 | Points scored | 119.55th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.7 | Points allowed | 118.123rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.1 | Margin | +1.414th of 30 |
| 29th of 30103.7 | Offense rating | 116.84th of 30 |
| 11th of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 115.523rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.1 | Pace | 102.48th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 18th of 303–5 | Road vs home | 5–28th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MEM 0–1 DAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.