Utah Jazz at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- John CollinsPoints17
- Jordan ClarksonAssists5
- Walker KesslerRebounds8
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points20
- Desmond BaneAssists9
- Ziaire WilliamsRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game91–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter91–105
- Q421.0Luka Samanic lost ball turnover (Santi Aldama steals)91–105
- Q421.0Luka Samanic offensive rebound91–105
- Q425.1Collin Sexton misses running pullup jump shot91–105
- Q430.1Walker Kessler defensive rebound91–105
- Q433.1Jaren Jackson Jr. misses 26-foot three point jumper91–105
- Q457.0Collin Sexton personal foul91–105
- Q457.0Desmond Bane defensive rebound91–105
- Q458.1Ochai Agbaji misses 26-foot three point jumper91–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:41Keyonte George makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jordan Clarkson assists)UTAH 12 – 7 MEM · UTAH 52% → 58% +6UTAH 52% → 58%+6 pts
- Q13:25Vince Williams Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)UTAH 19 – 19 MEM · MEM 46% → 53% +7MEM 46% → 53%+7 pts
- Q12:26Desmond Bane makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Nowell assists)UTAH 19 – 22 MEM · MEM 53% → 59% +7MEM 53% → 59%+7 pts
- Q11:28Kelly Olynyk makes 25-foot three point jumper (Collin Sexton assists)UTAH 22 – 22 MEM · UTAH 40% → 47% +7UTAH 40% → 47%+7 pts
- Q142.1Ochai Agbaji makes 23-foot three point jumper (Collin Sexton assists)UTAH 25 – 24 MEM · UTAH 43% → 50% +7UTAH 43% → 50%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Grizzlies 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -0.5
- MEM 52%
- Fair odds
- MEM -112
- UTAH +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 113.3 – 114.2 MEM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1441 | 1412 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −22 | −28 | UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups · MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | UTAH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MEM +14 Elo | MEM 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 52.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30114.2 | Points scored | 105.629th of 30 |
| 25th of 30120.6 | Points allowed | 114.119th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−6.4 | Margin | −8.426th of 30 |
| 17th of 30111.2 | Offense rating | 103.529th of 30 |
| 28th of 30117.4 | Defense rating | 111.716th of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.5 | Pace | 101.416th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 27th of 301–7 | Road vs home | 0–830th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
−28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
UTAH 2–0 MEM in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.