Utah Jazz at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints24
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists7
- John CollinsRebounds11
Trail Blazers- Jerami GrantPoints30
- Malcolm BrogdonAssists8
- Jabari WalkerRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–121
- Q411.1shot clock turnover105–121
- Q435.1John Collins makes 1-foot dunk105–121
- Q436.0John Collins offensive rebound103–121
- Q438.1Lauri Markkanen misses 23-foot three point jumper103–121
- Q449.0John Collins defensive rebound103–121
- Q451.0Jabari Walker misses free throw 2 of 2103–121
- Q451.0Jabari Walker makes free throw 1 of 2103–121
- Q451.0Lauri Markkanen shooting foul103–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:34Jerami Grant makes 23-foot three point jumper (Toumani Camara assists)UTAH 0 – 3 POR · POR 44% → 51% +6POR 44% → 51%+6 pts
- Q19:55Jordan Clarkson makes 26-foot three pointerUTAH 5 – 7 POR · UTAH 45% → 51% +6UTAH 45% → 51%+6 pts
- Q19:19Toumani Camara makes 25-foot three point jumper (Duop Reath assists)UTAH 7 – 12 POR · POR 49% → 55% +6POR 49% → 55%+6 pts
- Q17:26Toumani Camara makes 23-foot three point jumper (Malcolm Brogdon assists)UTAH 7 – 17 POR · POR 60% → 66% +6POR 60% → 66%+6 pts
- Q14:29Shaedon Sharpe makes 24-foot step back jumpshot (Jabari Walker assists)UTAH 12 – 20 POR · POR 56% → 63% +7POR 56% → 63%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jazz 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH -2
- UTAH 57%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -125
- POR +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 115.0 – 113.3 POR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1439 | 1420 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | POR and UTAH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +5 | −61 | UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups · POR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +51 Elo | UTAH 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 55.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30115.6 | Points scored | 103.230th of 30 |
| 26th of 30122.6 | Points allowed | 113.616th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.1 | Margin | −10.429th of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.7 | Offense rating | 102.230th of 30 |
| 30th of 30118.5 | Defense rating | 112.418th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.9 | Pace | 99.524th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 27th of 301–6 | Road vs home | 1–526th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−61 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
UTAH 1–0 POR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.