New Orleans Pelicans at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Brandon IngramPoints26
- Brandon IngramAssists8
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds7
Jazz- Collin SextonPoints16
- Collin SextonAssists6
- Walker KesslerRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–105
- Q42.1Brandon Ingram offensive rebound100–105
- Q42.1Brandon Ingram misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot100–105
- Q45.1Keyonte George makes free throw 2 of 2100–105
- Q45.1Jordan Hawkins enters the game for Jose Alvarado100–104
- Q45.1Cody Zeller enters the game for Naji Marshall100–104
- Q45.1Kris Dunn enters the game for Kelly Olynyk100–104
- Q45.1Keyonte George makes free throw 1 of 2100–104
- Q45.1Jose Alvarado personal take foul100–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:39Jose Alvarado makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cody Zeller assists)NO 89 – 89 UTAH · NO 35% → 53% +18NO 35% → 53%+18 pts
- Q45:06Kelly Olynyk makes 25-foot three point jumper (Collin Sexton assists)NO 91 – 92 UTAH · UTAH 35% → 53% +19UTAH 35% → 53%+19 pts
- Q44:24Collin Sexton makes 24-foot three point jumper (Talen Horton-Tucker assists)NO 93 – 95 UTAH · UTAH 40% → 61% +20UTAH 40% → 61%+20 pts
- Q43:52Collin Sexton makes 25-foot three point jumper (Talen Horton-Tucker assists)NO 95 – 98 UTAH · UTAH 47% → 69% +21UTAH 47% → 69%+21 pts
- Q41:55Keyonte George makes 26-foot three point jumper (Collin Sexton assists)NO 95 – 101 UTAH · UTAH 77% → 94% +17UTAH 77% → 94%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pelicans 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -4.5
- NO 68%
- Fair odds
- NO -145
- UTAH +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 118.1 – 115.2 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1423 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | NO on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +58 | −27 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | NO crossed 1 time zone and UTAH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NO +128 Elo | NO 67.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 59.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30113.7 | Points scored | 114.912th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.4 | Points allowed | 122.527th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −7.726th of 30 |
| 17th of 30111.1 | Offense rating | 111.415th of 30 |
| 12th of 30110.8 | Defense rating | 118.929th of 30 |
| 8th of 30102.3 | Pace | 101.613th of 30 |
| 17th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 13th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 3–420th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+58 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.