New Orleans Pelicans at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints26
- Zion WilliamsonAssists7
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds13
Jazz- Keyonte GeorgePoints19
- Jordan ClarksonAssists10
- Omer YurtsevenRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–114
- Q40.1Keyonte George defensive rebound112–114
- Q40.1Naji Marshall misses tip shot112–114
- Q40.1Naji Marshall offensive rebound112–114
- Q45.1Brandon Ingram misses 21-foot jumper112–114
- Q410.1Jordan Hawkins enters the game for Jonas Valanciunas112–114
- Q410.1Ochai Agbaji enters the game for Jordan Clarkson112–114
- Q410.1Pelicans Full timeout112–114
- Q410.1Jordan Clarkson personal foul112–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:18Collin Sexton makes 25-foot three point jumper (Talen Horton-Tucker assists)NO 97 – 101 UTAH · UTAH 51% → 66% +15UTAH 51% → 66%+15 pts
- Q44:40Jordan Clarkson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Omer Yurtseven assists)NO 103 – 106 UTAH · UTAH 46% → 66% +20UTAH 46% → 66%+20 pts
- Q43:17Simone Fontecchio makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jordan Clarkson assists)NO 105 – 111 UTAH · UTAH 70% → 87% +17UTAH 70% → 87%+17 pts
- Q42:42Keyonte George makes 25-foot three pointer (Walker Kessler assists)NO 107 – 114 UTAH · UTAH 79% → 93% +14UTAH 79% → 93%+14 pts
- Q41:14Herbert Jones makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brandon Ingram assists)NO 112 – 114 UTAH · NO 6% → 27% +22NO 6% → 27%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pelicans 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -5
- NO 68%
- Fair odds
- NO -158
- UTAH +158 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 117.2 – 113.7 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1433 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +43 | −29 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +134 Elo | NO 68.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 61.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30112.9 | Points scored | 114.312th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.9 | Points allowed | 121.125th of 30 |
| 19th of 300.0 | Margin | −6.924th of 30 |
| 21st of 30110.4 | Offense rating | 110.916th of 30 |
| 12th of 30110.4 | Defense rating | 117.628th of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.3 | Pace | 101.711th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 16th of 303–4 | Road vs home | 4–419th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NO 0–1 UTAH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.