Los Angeles Lakers at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints31
- D'Angelo RussellAssists10
- Anthony DavisRebounds14
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints33
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists7
- Josh GiddeyRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–133
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–133
- Q49.0shot clock turnover110–133
- Q431.0Tre Mann defensive rebound110–133
- Q435.1Jalen Hood-Schifino misses 25-foot three point jumper110–133
- Q437.1Colin Castleton offensive rebound110–133
- Q441.1D'Moi Hodge misses 25-foot three point jumper110–133
- Q451.1Jalen Hood-Schifino defensive goaltending violation110–133
- Q451.1Cason Wallace makes layup (Tre Mann assists)110–133
- Q41:13Alex Fudge makes free throw 2 of 2110–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:28D'Angelo Russell makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Austin Reaves assists)LAL 27 – 16 OKC · LAL 47% → 54% +7LAL 47% → 54%+7 pts
- Q211:48Cason Wallace makes 22-foot three point jumper (Lindy Waters III assists)LAL 37 – 33 OKC · OKC 52% → 60% +7OKC 52% → 60%+7 pts
- Q210:39Taurean Prince makes 23-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)LAL 42 – 35 OKC · LAL 41% → 48% +7LAL 41% → 48%+7 pts
- Q29:09D'Angelo Russell makes 23-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)LAL 45 – 40 OKC · LAL 37% → 44% +7LAL 37% → 44%+7 pts
- Q28:54Aaron Wiggins makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)LAL 45 – 43 OKC · OKC 56% → 63% +7OKC 56% → 63%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -6.5
- OKC 74%
- Fair odds
- OKC -247
- LAL +247 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 110.8 – 117.7 OKC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | LAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +3 | +99 | LAL: Usual rotation · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +179 Elo | OKC 73.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 70.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 71.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30112.9 | Points scored | 118.66th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.3 | Points allowed | 110.99th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +7.63rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30109.6 | Offense rating | 115.86th of 30 |
| 8th of 30109.9 | Defense rating | 108.46th of 30 |
| 10th of 30102.0 | Pace | 101.614th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Road vs home | 5–416th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+99 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.