Los Angeles Lakers at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- D'Angelo RussellPoints35
- D'Angelo RussellAssists9
- Anthony DavisRebounds16
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints15
- Marcus SasserAssists8
- Jalen DurenRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game133–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter133–107
- Q410.1Stanley Umude bad pass (Maxwell Lewis steals)133–107
- Q414.2Killian Hayes defensive rebound133–107
- Q417.1D'Moi Hodge misses 27-foot three point jumper133–107
- Q426.1Stanley Umude lost ball turnover (D'Moi Hodge steals)133–107
- Q435.1Christian Wood makes 4-foot dunk (Maxwell Lewis assists)133–107
- Q442.1Christian Wood defensive rebound131–107
- Q445.0Marcus Sasser misses driving floating jump shot131–107
- Q458.0Jalen Hood-Schifino makes free throw 2 of 2131–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:37Isaiah Stewart makes 28-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)LAL 0 – 3 DET · DET 42% → 48% +6DET 42% → 48%+6 pts
- Q18:09Taurean Prince makes 24-foot three point shot (LeBron James assists)LAL 11 – 8 DET · LAL 58% → 64% +6LAL 58% → 64%+6 pts
- Q14:25D'Angelo Russell makes 27-foot running pullup jump shot (Cam Reddish assists)LAL 28 – 14 DET · LAL 79% → 84% +5LAL 79% → 84%+5 pts
- Q210:04Stanley Umude makes 24-foot three point jumper (Killian Hayes assists)LAL 42 – 30 DET · DET 14% → 18% +4DET 14% → 18%+4 pts
- Q28:58D'Angelo Russell makes 27-foot step back jumpshotLAL 45 – 32 DET · LAL 79% → 84% +5LAL 79% → 84%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lakers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -4
- LAL 65%
- Fair odds
- LAL -139
- DET +139 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 114.5 – 112.1 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1394 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −35 | −40 | LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · DET: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +109 Elo | LAL 65.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 58.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30111.8 | Points scored | 109.627th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.7 | Points allowed | 117.722nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−1.8 | Margin | −8.127th of 30 |
| 25th of 30108.8 | Offense rating | 107.127th of 30 |
| 11th of 30110.6 | Defense rating | 115.023rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.6 | Pace | 102.37th of 30 |
| 7th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 0–1029th of 30 |
| 20th of 303–6 | Road vs home | 1–728th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
−40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.