Detroit Pistons at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints31
- Cade CunninghamAssists5
- Jalen DurenRebounds13
Pacers- Tyrese HaliburtonPoints26
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists10
- Myles TurnerRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–136
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–136
- Q40.0Pistons offensive team rebound113–136
- Q40.0Jaden Ivey misses 28-foot three point jumper113–136
- Q45.1Andrew Nembhard makes 19-foot pullup jump shot113–136
- Q422.1Myles Turner defensive rebound113–134
- Q425.1Myles Turner blocks Jaden Ivey 's 2-foot driving layup113–134
- Q435.1Stanley Umude enters the game for Cade Cunningham113–134
- Q435.1Marcus Sasser enters the game for Jalen Duren113–134
- Q435.1Ben Sheppard enters the game for Tyrese Haliburton113–134
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q312.1Alec Burks makes 26-foot three point jumper (Killian Hayes assists)DET 96 – 97 IND · DET 22% → 33% +10DET 22% → 33%+10 pts
- Q49:54Bruce Brown makes driving layup (Obi Toppin assists)DET 102 – 101 IND · IND 49% → 58% +9IND 49% → 58%+9 pts
- Q48:49Cade Cunningham makes two point shot (Killian Hayes assists)DET 106 – 104 IND · DET 38% → 48% +10DET 38% → 48%+10 pts
- Q48:29Myles Turner makes 3-foot two point shot (Bruce Brown assists)DET 106 – 106 IND · IND 52% → 61% +10IND 52% → 61%+10 pts
- Q47:58Obi Toppin makes 27-foot three point jumper (Myles Turner assists)DET 106 – 109 IND · IND 61% → 75% +14IND 61% → 75%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pacers 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -8
- IND 79%
- Fair odds
- IND -309
- DET +309 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 115.7 – 124.2 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1420 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −26 | +85 | DET: Weaker than its recent lineups · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +225 Elo | IND 78.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 75.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 75.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30109.5 | Points scored | 128.31st of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.9 | Points allowed | 126.430th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−6.4 | Margin | +1.914th of 30 |
| 27th of 30107.6 | Offense rating | 120.21st of 30 |
| 21st of 30113.9 | Defense rating | 118.429th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.8 | Pace | 106.81st of 30 |
| 29th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 27th of 301–7 | Road vs home | 5–416th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
−26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+85 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.